ASU’s run game clashes with Baylor’s passing attack in Big 12 opener

Arizona State football’s Big 12 opener at Baylor on Saturday hinges on the Bears’ effectiveness passing against a depleted ASU secondary and how much the Sun Devils will lean on their run game.

ASU and Baylor entered the year as conference title hopefuls in a wide open group of contenders, and both enter the Big 12 opener looking to reach 3-1 after their own respective nonconference letdown.

2 key matchups to watch in Arizona State-Baylor

Baylor QB vs. injured ASU secondary

Sawyer Robertson has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country to spearhead a Baylor offense that’s second in the Big 12 in total offense (517.3 yards per game).

The 6-foot-4 Robertson is two yards shy of the FBS lead for passing yards (1,070) after facing Auburn, SMU and FCS Samford. He had over 850 passing yards against the Power Four opponents Auburn and SMU with seven touchdowns and no interceptions before throwing two picks against Samford.

He has spread the ball around to five receivers with over 100 yards each, led by Ashtyn Hawkins (257) and Josh Cameron (244). Tight end Michael Trigg (151) has looked like an NFL prospect.

“A guy who knows he has great catch radius,” ASU defensive coordinator Brian Ward said of Trigg. “Has all the tricks in terms of the offensive guys getting separation late, especially when he’s covered. He’s a guy who presents a lot of challenges for us. Big, rangy and he runs like a wideout.”

The Bears will try to spread out an ASU secondary that will be without star safety Xavion Alford and likely without rotational defensive back Montana Warren (questionable).

Adrian “Boogie” Wilson played well in Alford’s spot on Saturday against Texas State with seven tackles. He has earned PFF’s second-highest coverage grade among Big 12 defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps this season, and cornerback Keith Abney II is right behind him at No. 3.

The majority of Warren’s snaps have come at nickel and if he’s unable to go, it puts more on primary nickel Kyndrich Breedlove and keeps the secondary from rotating fresh bodies as much.

With how willing Robertson has been to utilize every receiver out there, the veteran QB could potentially key in on the weak links.

ASU ground game vs. poor Baylor defense

While the Sun Devils are on the mend defensively, they’re getting healthier at running back, as Kyson Brown is likely to return after injuring his ankle in Week 2 at Mississippi State.

Since Brown went out, Raleek Brown stepped up with two straight 100-yard games to enter the Baylor matchup 12 yards shy of the Big 12 lead and well in front on yards per carry (8.3).

“The running backs are a squad that’s kind of coming together. I think they’re looking to get healthy and everything but they’re a talented group,” Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “Obviously there’s a big miss from last year, but I think they’ve got a competent and really solid, really good group. So it’s a challenge for us.

“The line of scrimmage for them is a lot of returners and veteran guys, so they handle movement really good. They ID pressure and they’re able to sort through it. … They play a brand of ball that kind of bullies you and if you let yourself be bullied, they’ll take it.”

Not only have the ASU rushers been effective — all three of Kyson Brown, Raleek Brown and Kanye Udoh have had at least one game with 100 total yards while Sam Leavitt leads the nation in scramble yards by a quarterback (178) — the Baylor defense has been ineffective in slowing down backs.

Arizona State’s rushing attack is No. 2 in Power Four while Baylor’s rush defense is third worst in Power Four, according to PFF. The Bears have given up 188.3 rushing yards per game while ASU is yet to gain fewer than 201 yards in any one game.

Leavitt entered the season with all eyes on him as the preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, but keeping his job simple like it was in the Texas State win could be the key to ASU’s run game churning and getting the Baylor offense out of rhythm.

Catch ASU-Baylor at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday on the Arizona Sports app, ESPN 620 AM or 98.7 FM HD-2. It will be televised on FOX.

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