Arizona Wildcats take step back, but are still ranked high in way-too-early predictions

They are probably still cleaning up the confetti in Lucas Oil Stadium, but that does not mean the college basketball world cannot turn its attention to next season.

Sure, the Duke Blue Devils have been 2015 champions for less than 24 hours, but they’re old news (everywhere but Durham, that is).

Looking at next year, ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi, has the Arizona Wildcats as a 3-seed in the West Region for next year’s NCAA Tournament.

ESPN’s Jeff Goodman, in an Insider piece, also sees Arizona as a 3-seed, with this to say:

The Wildcats are likely to lose their entire starting lineup, but Sean Miller brings in a terrific freshman class led by scoring guard Allonzo Trier, Ray Smith and Justin Simon. Arizona will also have Gabe York, BC transfer Ryan Anderson, Dusan Ristic, Elliott Pitts and Parker Jackson-Cartwright back — and also add junior college guard Kadeem Allen.

The general consensus is the Wildcats, who are sure to lose point guard T.J. McConnell and will likely lose other members of the starting lineup, will take a bit of a step back from this past season, when they went 34-4 and won the Pac-12 regular season title as well as the Pac-12 Tournament.

Still, there is a healthy amount of respect for head coach Sean Miller and the program he has built, which is why Lunardi and Goodman, as well as NCAA hoops writer Eamonn Brennan, are still high on Arizona’s chances.

Overall, Brennan has Arizona 12th in the country, but still highest among Pac-12 schools.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will enter the NBA draft. Stanley Johnson is sure to join him. Point guard T.J. McConnell graduates this spring. Those were already three massive losses for Arizona coach Sean Miller, and that was before Monday’s news that junior forward Brandon Ashley — whose projected NBA draft position lies somewhere late in the second-round, if that — will enter the draft anyway. That’s four starters gone. Will center Kaleb Tarczewski make the fifth? Tarczewski isn’t projected to sniff the first round, either, but perhaps he could come to believe that his status won’t improve with another college season under his belt. (We might disagree: If Tarczewski can develop a bit of low-post touch and boost his offensive rebounding numbers in a more open frontcourt situation, NBA GMs might be more interested.) Anyway, if Tarczewski does return, the Wildcats could still have one of the nation’s best defensive frontcourts — one that would pair quite nicely with a backcourt of Gabe York, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, and Miller’s usual smattering of elite recruits, Allonzo Trier chief among them. If Tarczewski leaves, Arizona takes another major hit. Time will tell. For now — given Miller’s success, and the talent he will have regardless of its experience — No. 12 feels like a fair place to split the difference.

As anyone can tell you, plenty will happen between now and when these predictions will have a chance to pan out. Teams will see players leave early for the NBA, and there are some top-level recruits who have not yet committed to schools. Also, there will undoubtedly be some players who transfer, which could also change the landscape.

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