Biggest threats to Texas Tech’s Big 12 title defense include BYU, Arizona and a dark horse

Texas Tech’s odds as the Big 12 football title favorites took a hit when quarterback Brendan Sorsby was ruled ineligible, but they’re still viewed as the most likely conference champions.

That will be with Will Hammond as the Red Raiders’ starting quarterback, fresh off a torn ACL suffered last October following two impressive showings at Utah and Arizona State.

Their defensive front is expected to be dominant again, having reloaded following the departures of multiple NFL draft picks, including last year’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Jacob Rodriguez, and second-overall pick David Bailey.

Texas Tech’s Big 12 title game opponent from last season, BYU, looks primed to give the Red Raiders the toughest run for their money.

The Cougars retained head coach Kalani Sitake following interest from Penn State as well as their dynamic offensive duo of young quarterback Bear Bachmeier and tailback L.J. Martin, who led the conference in rushing yards last season (1,305).

BYU lost major perimeter talent as the result of wide receiver Parker Kingston’s rape charge that has since been dismissed, but there are big bodies who can pick up the slack between 6-foot-5 Jojo Phillips (372 receiving yards last two seasons) and 6-foot-6 Oregon transfer Kyler Kasper, a Williams Field High School product.

Bachmeier also has his older brother, Tiger Bachmeier, as a receiving target who had 409 yards as a freshman at Stanford but has not had more than 10 catches in a season since.

Arizona, ASU grouped together around middle of Big 12 odds

Texas Tech is a heavy favorite to win the title with -105 odds as of Sunday, per FanDuel.

The Arizona Wildcats and ASU Sun Devils are seventh and eighth in the order at +2500 and +2700, respectively. Their roster outlooks are a bit inverse of each other, as Arizona has a sure thing at quarterback in Noah Fifita without a lot of certainty elsewhere, while ASU’s most uncertain position is quarterback.

The Wildcats rolled out a Heisman campaign for Fifita at Big 12 Media Days as he enters his fourth season as the starter with his eyes trained on postseason glory.

But Arizona has a tall task in replenishing the secondary that made it so effective in 2025, as four players were selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. Oregon transfer Daylen Austin is one of the players being looked to, but he started camp with an undisclosed injury.

ASU has not yet named its starting quarterback, as Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, veteran transfer Mikey Keene, freshman Jake Fette and returning QB Cam Dyer are all battling it out.

The Sun Devils will also have an especially tough schedule that includes road games at Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona and cross-country to UCF in conference after a trip to Texas A&M and London to play Kansas early in the season.

Which other teams are expected to challenge Texas Tech for Big 12 title?

BYU is closest behind Texas Tech at +550, while the Cougars’ in-state rival, Utah (+850), is the only other team with better odds than +1500.

The Utes bring back Valley product QB Devon Dampier despite head coach Kyle Whittingham moving onto Michigan, although they lost a lot of other key pieces who followed Whittingham, such as AP All-American EDGE John Henry Daley.

Betting on internal promotion and former defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley to keep Whittingham’s culture going after the latter won two-thirds of his games over 22 years is likely a safe one, but a variable worth noting nonetheless.

There’s a grouping of three teams between +1500 and +1700, with Houston being the safest bet of the three as QB Conner Weigman, one of the Big 12’s best in 2025, returns for a final college season.

Kansas State and TCU are more of wild cards, as the former has a new head coach, Collin Klein, and the latter is betting on Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig being its answer to Josh Hoover’s Indiana transfer.

Is there a Big 12 dark horse to watch?

Oklahoma State is ninth in FanDuel’s title odds (+2700), which feels much too low.

The Cowboys fired longtime coach Mike Gundy three games into his 21st season, and replaced him with North Texas coach Eric Morris, who led a blistering offense after coming up through the Mike Leach offensive system.

Morris brought impressive QB prospect Drew Mestemaker with him to ensure that offense successfully makes the jump in competition, as the stats he accumulated in North Texas’ program-best season were gaudy:

• 4,379 passing yards (led nation)
• 34 passing touchdowns (led American)
• 9.5 yards per attempt (led nation)
• 68.9% completion rate (led American)
• 168.7 passer rating (led American)
• Five rushing touchdowns

Mestemaker did this all as a redshirt freshman who’s now also a dark horse in the Heisman and top overall draft pick race.

Oklahoma State’s transfer class, which included 55 total additions (12 more than the next-most nationwide), ranked 15th in the country and second in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech, per 247 Sports’ team transfer rankings.

North Texas standouts Wyatt Young (led American with 1,264 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns) and Caleb Hawkins (led American with 1,434 rushing yards while his 25 rushing touchdowns and 29 overall scores both led the nation) were also a part of that class.

The Cowboys’ late-season matchup at ASU on Nov. 21 could have more title implications than people realize ahead of the season.

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