Big 12 reset: Which teams are contenders and who are the dark horses?

A few Big 12 games are already in the books, but with conference play fully ramping up on Saturday, it’s time to take a fresh look at the pecking order.

If betting odds are any indication, there are two clear leaders in the clubhouse and they’ll square off to begin Saturday’s action: Utah (+420) is hosting Texas Tech (+440).

As much as they can in situations where they’re only playing much lesser competition, the two squads have shown they are exactly what their preseason projections said they’d be.

Utah is back to its physical, smash mouth identity with a dynamic quarterback in Devon Dampier bringing sound decision making and certainty when it had none of the latter at the position in 2024.

The talent Texas Tech shelled out for in the offseason is yielding results so far, its defensive line looking like one of the best in the country with four players each in the top 10 at their position, per PFF.

When that defensive line squares off against Utah’s offensive line led by a tandem of first-round offensive tackles on Saturday, it could be a matchup of the best two position groups across the conference.

There’s a group of three teams close together slightly below the Utes and Red Raiders in TCU (+650), Baylor (+650) and Iowa State (+700), all of which can make the case they own the Big 12’s best nonconference win.

TCU throttled North Carolina 48-14 in the season opener before Iowa State and Baylor each picked up close wins over in-state foes Iowa and SMU, respectively.

All three teams are also led by returning quarterbacks who have shown well, including Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson, who’s two passing yards shy of the FBS lead with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions.

Where do ASU, Arizona stack up in Big 12?

Arizona State (+900) has tumbled down to No. 6 in the odds order as a result of its Mississippi State loss and slow pace out of the gates against Northern Arizona in the season opener.

The Sun Devils will face all of the top four contenders over the next five weeks separated only by a bye week in the middle. If ASU can muster wins against Baylor and TCU, it would likely position itself to be right in the thick of contending entering a bye week before facing Utah and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks.

After the group of six is when the long shots start, whether it be BYU (+1800) with its questionable quarterback play, Kansas State (+5500) and its poor execution in close games or Colorado (+10000) and its eclectic talent collection.

Arizona (+2200), which is tied with Houston for the ninth-best odds, has performed well enough to be viewed higher, but low preseason expectations are forcing them to prove it over a longer sample.

The Wildcats have already beaten Kansas State, but that didn’t count toward conference records because it was scheduled before realignment. They’ll have to wait at least one more week for their first conference win of the year as this is a bye week.

Iowa State, who Arizona will face on the other side of the bye, is one of two teams to already pick up a Big 12 win after its Week 0 win over Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland. The other win belongs to Houston after it knocked off Colorado.

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