Are the Cinderellas of the NCAA Tournament disappearing? The 2026 edition will be telling

The NCAA Tournament bombards the senses. It’s a festival of mascots, pep bands, buzzer beaters and wall-to-wall basketball. It’s the big event that never lets you down.

But in 2026, an ominous question looms over the landscape:

Is Cinderella dead? Or did she just take the year off?

Answers are forthcoming. The tournament begins in earnest on Thursday, kicking off two of the greatest days on the athletic calendar. But there is a fear that the new pay-to-play reality of college basketball might ruin one of the most treasured spectacles in sports.

In 2025, all 16 of the top four seeds advanced to the second round, the first time that’s happened since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.

This year, Arizona, Duke and Michigan are considered juggernauts. The regular season began with a streak of 96 consecutive victories by ranked teams against unranked opponents. And now, all 16 of the top four seeds are favored to win their opening game by 10 or more points.

Mid-major programs that once played a pivotal part in the tapestry of the tournament are struggling to fill the role of underdog, where their best players are often poached by bigger schools before those schools can pose a real threat. Clearly, the economics of NIL and the transfer portal is quickly widening the gap between the power conferences and the rest of Division 1.

One can argue that the lack of stunning upsets early in the tournament only stacks the deck for a thrilling conclusion, when the field is top-heavy, full of marquee brands and heavyweight contenders. But that misses the point entirely.

The magic of the NCAA Tournament can be found in the giant slayers and the teams holding the slingshots: Bryce Drew’s buzzer beater that propelled Valparaiso; Princeton backdoor cutting UCLA into oblivion; Gordon Hayward’s halfcourt heave that barely missed, one that would’ve lifted Butler to a stunning championship over Duke; Sister Jean serving as the lovable spiritual touchstone of Loyola Chicago; and San Diego State actually reaching the title game just before the transfer portal flipped the sport on its ear.

College basketball once smiled on the less fortunate. The advent of the 3-point shot was considered a great equalizer. So were 40-minute games, unfamiliar referees, neutral court settings where crowds are quick to side with the underdog and the stifling pressure that comes with single-elimination basketball.

Alas, money is muting the magic. A mid-major program might spend $2 million on its entire roster, which is a problem when Duke reportedly pays $1.3 million per player. Mid-majors have now become feeder programs for the wealthy and the bluebloods.

March Madness are two of the greatest words in sports, so good they’re trademarked by the NCAA. But the sport can only guarantee that it will begin in March. It can no longer guarantee madness. Which means it’s in danger of becoming the bracket challenge, a playground for the rich.

Reach Bickley at dbickley@arizonasports.com. Listen to Bickley & Marotta weekdays from 6 a.m.-10 a.m. on 98.7 and the Arizona Sports app.

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