KenPom: Arizona basketball is No. 2 in very, very early 2017-18 rankings
Mar 21, 2017, 3:44 PM
Arizona guard Rawle Alkins (1) looks to shoot as Saint Mary's forward Calvin Hermanson (24) defends during the second half of a second-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 18, 2017, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/George Frey)
(AP Photo/George Frey)
Las Vegas says Sean Miller’s Arizona Wildcats, who face Xavier in the Sweet 16 this Thursday, have the third-best odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, Ken Pomeroy’s algorithms still aren’t giving Arizona much credit.
The Wildcats are No. 18 in the current KenPom ratings, and before they beat Saint Mary’s in the second round of the tournament, Pomeroy’s analysis projected them to lose that game.
But what about next year?
Next year, Pomeroy’s computer really likes Arizona, ranking it No. 2 in version 0.1 of the 2017-18 KenPom preseason ratings.
Lauri Markkanen won’t be back in Tucson, but this prediction assumes the likes of Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins will return. The Cats also add seven-foot freshman DeAndre Ayton to the fold. There are a few other things that could happen in the coming weeks that would boost Arizona to #1.
For every team, Pomeroy projected that every player in Draft Express’ first-round 2017 mock draft will leave.
For Arizona, it might be generous to assume Trier will remain in Tucson, and even the likes of Alkins — whose NBA stock could be quickly rising — and freshman Kobi Simmons are viewed as intriguing prospects.
Regardless, the KenPom rating bump starting next season comes from Ayton, the second-ranked player in his recruiting class. The Wildcats also have commitments from 4-star prospects Brandon Randolph, Ira Lee and Alex Barcello.
Meanwhile, current rotation players Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Dusan Ristic, Chance Comanche, Keanu Pinder all could return. Dylan Smith will be eligible to play as well.
Commitment flips, surprise departures and even NCAA Tournament performances upcoming this season will change the rankings, but even if they do, it seems safe to say Arizona won’t be facing a sharp drop-off next season — if you believe the computer.
