UFC 161 Preview: Evans vs. Henderson

‘Suga’ Rashad Evans (17-3-1) vs. Dan ‘Hendo’ Henderson (29-9)

At one point Dan Henderson had earned a shot a shot at UFC lightweight champion Jon Jones’s belt. One knee injury, a cancelled UFC event and a loss to Lyoto Machida, and the oldest active fighter on the UFC roster is looking rewind the clock and keep his name relevant against a new generation of fighters. Similarly, his opponent, Rashad Evans is looking to bounce back from his uncharacteristically lackluster performance against Minotoro Nogueria, which pushed his losing streak to two after losing to Jones last May.

This is an extremely important bout for both men, as a win would keep their title dreams alive but a loss would not only rule out any possible title shot for the foreseeable future, it could be the first step toward retirement.

Striking

It’s no secret what Henderson’s game plan is. He will most certainly be looking to land his legendary overhand right, appropriately dubbed the ‘H-Bomb’. With his right hand constantly cocked and ready to explode onto his opponents’ skulls, the ‘H-Bomb’ has put an astounding 17 men on their butts, the third most knockdown in UFC/Pride FC/Strikeforce history. If he can manage to drop Evans at least once during Saturday’s main event, “Hendo” will tie Mirko Cro Cop and Anderson Silva for the second most knockdowns all-time, behind only Wanderlei Silva’s 27 knockdowns But the two-time Olympian will have to pick his shot carefully as Evans’ speed, head movement and athleticism will make him a difficult target to hit. While “Suga” isn’t the most accurate striker in the division, he has displayed a very powerful striking attack with knockout wins over Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. This is a difficult one to pick as Evans is much more elusive with his striking, choosing to utilize crisp boxing and head movement to pick apart his opponents while Henderson looks to punch a hole through his opponent’s face.

Edge: Push

Wrestling

Henderson’s amateur wrestling background is much more impressive than Evans’, as the two-time Olympian has long been one of the best wrestlers when it comes to MMA. But Evans is no slouch when it comes to the wrestling game, as the Junior College National Wrestling Champion and Michigan State Alum has 49 career takedowns, most in UFC light heavyweight history and seventh most for any weight class. Both light heavyweights have a success rate of around 50 percent when it comes to takedown attempts and both are almost dead even when it comes to takedown defense, stuffing about 65 percent of takedown attempts.
While Henderson may be the better pure wrestler, Evans is one of the best wrestlers to transition his skills into MMA. Wrestling will absolutely play a major role in this matchup and the first man to land a takedown could end up having his hand raised at the end.

Edge: Push

Grappling/Submissions

Henderson and Evans have combined for four submissions wins in 59 careers fights combined, none of which came under the UFC banner. Evans has spent most of his time inside the octagon in dominant position so he has never come close to tapping out during his nine-year career. Henderson, on the other hand, has been submitted three times in his career but they were the legendary Nogueira brothers and their most famous student Anderson Silva. Anything is possible inside the octagon but I think it’s safe to say this fight won’t end in a submission victory for either man.

Edge: Evans

PREDICTION

I can never count out Henderson or his ‘H-Bomb’, as he holds victories over 10 former UFC, Strikeforce and PRIDE champions including the iconic Fedor Emelinenko and the popular Wanderlei Silva during his reign as Pride FC champion. His right hand has put away a who’s who of the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions and if he can pressure Evans early and often it’s not out of the question that one of the overhand right of his could connect and put Evans away.

But in the end, I see Evans’ speed and athleticism playing the key factor as he utilizes his jab and head kicks to keep Hendo at bay. As long as he can avoid what everyone knows is coming and land some takedown I see Evans having his hand raised in the end.

Evans via split decision