UFC Fight Night 36: Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi head-to-toe breakdown

The UFC is making its first trip of 2014 to Brazil on Saturday to bring fans yet another free fight card. With the unfortunate position of being sandwiched between two pay-per-view cards, the buzz surrounding UFC Fight Night 36 has been rather quiet for a card headlined by a matchup between two former champions.

In a middleweight matchup between former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi, this card is guaranteed to leave the hardcore mixed martial art fans satisfied as the division is reshaped for the foreseeable future.

For Machida, who is coming off a violent first round knockout over Mark Muñoz at UFC Fight Night 30, this will be his second fight at 185 pounds — after six years of facing the best of the best that the UFC’s 205-pound division had to offer. Another highlight reel win for “The Dragon” would all but guarantee a shot at the belt and give him the chance to become the third fighter to hold UFC gold in two different weight classes.

But across from him in octagon is the stoic Gegard Mousasi, who knows a thing or two about championship belts as he ins not only the former Strikeforce champion, but also the former DREAM middleweight and light heavyweight champion. This will mark his first trip down to 185 pounds since 2008, and while “The Dreamcatcher” has not fought since his split decision victory over Ilir Latifi back at UFC on Fuel TV 9, don’t expect the long layoff to play much of a factor for 10-year veteran.

Striking

Machida is the perfect example of a fighter who can go from boring to exciting in the blink of an eye. As he bounces around the cage, dodging almost everything his opponent throws at him, he calmly dissects his opponents’ every move. Even the inevitable boos from the crowd voice their disapproval of his passive-aggressive style of fighting, the diehard fans of the world know a powerful left counter or straight front could be seconds away.

In the last fight, Machida stopped his Muñoz with a vicious head kick, giving him his 12th knockdown of his UFC career, the fourth most in company history. This also made him the seventh fighter in UFC history to stop two opponents with a kick to the head.

While Mousasi’s jab has proven to be one of the best tools in his arsenal, don’t expect him to rely on it too much against Machida, who is known as one of the most difficult fighters to hit in UFC history. In fact, Machida absorbs meager 1.41 significant strikes per minute of fighting, the third-lowest rate in UFC light-heavyweight history.

But the Dutch fighter’s biggest weapon has to be the combination of pure power and pinpoint accuracy. In fact, over the course of Mousasi’s last 15 fights, he has an astounding striking accuracy rating of 50.3 — compared to the UFC middleweight average of 43.8. Combine this with 17 of his 18 career knockouts coming in the opening round, including one over former UFC contender Renato “Babalu” Sobral at 1:00 of Round 1.

As mentioned above, the stand-up aspect of the fight game is easily the most difficult to judge in this matchup. It could easily end in a flash knockout, but could also end up being a slow and technical kickboxing battle. So in the end, no one gets the advantage as both men possess to the tools to counter the others’ strengths.

> Edge: Push

Wrestling/Grappling

It is safe to say Machida will not look to take the fight to the canvas as he rarely looked to wrestle in his past bouts. But this does not mean he won’t occasionally mix things up and catch his opponents off guard with a perfectly timed takedown. In fact, he’s landed 85 percent of his takedown attempts, which is the most in UFC light heavyweight history. But where he really shines is in the clinch; in his matchup against Dan Henderson at UFC 157, Machida surprised everyone as he tied up the former USA Greco Roman wrestling standout and dragged him to the ground, using Henderson’s own technique against him.

While Mousasi is primarily a striker, he does hold a black belt in Judo and is more than capable of securing takedowns in his fights, landing four in a bout with Ovince St. Preux and three against Keith Jardine.

However, Machida has proven to be almost nearly impossible to take down, as he has a takedown defense rate of 81.8, third highest in UFC light heavyweight history. In fact, in his last 12 fights, only Rameau Sokoudjou and Phil Davis managed to secure more than one takedown against “The Dragon,” which is outstanding given the fact he has faced wrestler standouts such as Tito Ortiz, Rashad Evans, Randy Couture, Ryan Bader and Muñoz.

If this fight turns into a chess match on the feet, the fighter to secure the first takedown of each round could gain the favor of the judges. Mousasi clearly has the edge in takedown offense, but Machida holds the edge in takedown defense, so it is a tossup over who holds the advantage in the cage.

> Edge: Push

Submission

While Mousasi has earned 11 career submission victories and has come out on top against submission specialists “Babalu” and Ronda “Jacare” Souza, he rarely looks to show off his skills on the canvas. Instead, Mousasi looks to capitalize on his opponents’ mistakes following the high volume of punches he throws from the top position before locking one of the many submissions he has in his arsenal.

Given the fact he has rarely taken the fight to the canvas, it is difficult to judge Machida’s submission skills. While he does hold a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he only has two submission victories under belt, with his last one coming way back at UFC 79 in 2007.

It’s another difficult matchup to judge as these two men only have a combined three submission losses in 58 career fights between them, so don’t expect much in the way of submission skills on display in the is one. However, the overall edge has to go to Mousasi as he has displayed a greater tendency to look for the submission than Machida.

> Edge: Mousasi

Prediction

This is about as close of a matchup as one will witness in the UFC, as both men appear to be peaking in their careers as mixed martial artists. If this fight remains on the feet, it could easily end in a lackluster decision, or better yet a draw, as both men have the tools to cancel out the other.

If Machida can survive the early onslaught, his chances of victory will grow exponentially as Mousasi has earned 29 of his 34 professional victories by knockout or submission — with 26 of those stoppages coming in the first round. Mousasi has also never been finished with strikes in his MMA career, so expect Machida to make history and to add to a long list of highlight reel finishes.

In the end, Mousasi’s skills from the top should play the biggest factor as he lands a barrage of strikes before locking on another submission late in Round 2.

> Mousasi via Round 2 submission

Here are the rest of my predictions for the main card and preliminary bouts:

• Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Francis Carmont
• Erick Silva vs. Takenori Sato
• Viscardi Andrade vs. Nicholas Musoke
• Charles Oliveira vs. Andy Ogle
• Cristiano Marcello def. Joe Proctor
• Ivan Jorge def. Rodrigo Damm
• Francisco Trinaldo def. Jesse Ronson
• Iuri Alcantara def Wilson Reis
• Maximo Blanco def. Felipe Arantes
• Ildemar Alcantara def. Albert Tumenov
• Douglas Silva de Andrade def. Zubair Tuhugov