UFC 170: Ronda Rousey vs. Sara McMann head-to-toe breakdown

With the aura of the Winter Olympics captivating the world, the UFC has decided to capitalize on the popularity of one of the world’s biggest sporting events.

Only 17 athletes have competed in both the Olympics and the UFC, but never before have two Olympic medalists squared off inside the octagon. All that will change in the main event of UFC 170, as 2008 Judo bronze medalist and UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey puts her belt on the line against 2004 wrestling silver medalist Sara McMann.

Rousey, who is coming off a third round submission victory over rival Miesha Tate at UFC 168, has looked unstoppable since making her mixed martial arts debut in 2011. Utilizing her world-class judo skills, Rousey has finished seven of her eight fights within the first round. But McMann poses a unique threat to the champion in that she may be the only female fighter whose skillset is tailor-made for a fight with Rousey.

Expect fireworks in this historic fight as both women look to prove their style of fighting style is superior to the other’s and as they compete to find out who is the most dominant female fighter in the world.

Striking

Neither Rousey nor McMann has ever gone into a fight looking to stand toe-to-toe and trade blows with their opponents. Instead, they choose to absolutely dismantle their opponents on the canvas by physically and mentally breaking the others’ will to fight. This should make this matchup the most difficult to judge, since neither has shown enough of their striking abilities to show they hold the edge in their main event fight.

But then Rousey’s head trainer Edmond Traverdyan recently made waves when he revealed his pupil could defeat a world champion boxer, with Rousey adding she believed her striking was the best in women’s MMA. This assessment may not be too far-fetched as Rousey does land a 10.23 total strikes per minute, the fifth highest in UFC/Strikeforce history, and she landed 40 significant strikes with an actuary rating of 63 percent in her last fight against Tate.

In contrast to Rousey’s bold statements, McMann’s striking is still in the development stages of her career. Having never needed to showcase her boxing skills, McMann instead chooses to use quick combinations to set up her powerful takedowns. In her last fight, McMann needed only eight significant strikes to finish off Sheila Gaff, wasting little time in taking the fight to the canvas. McMann also absorbs 1.63 significant strikes per minute of fighting — almost one full strike lower than the UFC average of 2.61, which means Rousey could have a difficult time landing strikes on her elusive opponent.

However, McMann has never faced an opponent with the speed and accuracy of Rousey. So if this fight somehow turns into a stand up war, Rousey should have the edge — since she lands blows more frequently than her opponent.

> Edge: Rousey

Wrestling

In her last fight against Sheila Gaff, McMann put on a wrestling clinic — as she needed less than four minutes to secures two takedowns. If that wasn’t enough, she has landed an astounding 28 of her 35 takedown attempts in her last five fights — good for an accuracy rating of 80 percent of takedown attempts in that time; combine this with an average of 6.78 takedown attempts per 15 minutes of fighting — more than 3.5 times greater than the UFC average of 1.93 — and McMann has essentially proven she can take the fight to the canvas whenever and as many times as she wants.

But if an upcoming fighter wants to see how to properly utilize the judo throw inside in an MMA fight, all they have to do is replay Rousey’s last fight against Tate. Throwing Tate to the canvas six times in less than 3 minutes, Rousey showed the gap in talent level between her and the rest of the division. Combine this with a takedown accuracy of 70.6 percent, with all 12 of her takedowns coming from within the clinch, and future opponents should be tread lightly when looking to engage the bronze medalist in close quarters. But don’t expect Rousey to have the same success against McMann, whose last five opponents have gone 0-for-2 in takedown attempts.

So while Rousey should have better success than others against McMann’s wrestling attack, the edge has to go the Olympic wrestler in this department.

> Edge: McMann

Grappling/Submissions

Easily the most discussed topic leading in this fight has be how McMann will defend the Rousey’s signature armbar. This was expected as Rousey has earned all eight of her professional victories by way of an armbar, with seven of those finishes coming in the first round. Everyone knows it is coming, but no one has managed to figure out how to defend this devastating technique. Liz Carmouche and Tate both seemed to have it figured out until Rousey secured top position, grabbed their wrist and torqued their arm until they were forced to tap out. These two victories are still the only two submission wins by a woman inside a UFC octagon.

Outside of the glitz and glamour of the UFC, Rousey had even more success, as her 25-second armbar victory of Sarah D’Alelio is the second-fastest submission in the company’s history, while her 54-second armbar victory over Sarah Kaufman was the fastest submission ever in a Strikeforce championship fight.

But McMann has never been submitted in her MMA career, and has held her own against some of the best grapplers in the women’s 135-pound division. In her matchups versus Shayna Baszler and Hitomi Akano, who have a combined 28 career submission victories, McMann not only defended every submission they threw at her, but did so while landing a vicious ground and pound from the top position. But while McMann did defend these submission attempts, she was put into some fairly compromising positions.

Rousey’s submission game is far more superior than that of any of McMann’s previous opponents, and defending all the armbar attempts from someone who specializes in the move over the course of 25 minutes could prove exhausting, even for McMann.

> Edge: Rousey

Prediction

Rousey’s 56-day turnaround between title defenses is tied for the shortest span for a UFC champion. The last time this happened was when Matt Hughes took the same amount of time between defending his title between UFC 63 and UFC 65. Hughes ended up losing the belt to a then-up-and-coming Georges St-Pierre. In contrast, McMann’s 301-day layoff between her last fight and Saturday’s bout with Rousey is the longest break she’s had without a match since going pro in 2011.

This fight should make it out of the first round, but I would be shocked if it makes it into the championship rounds. Look for McMann to actually test Rousey’s defensive skills as she looks to put the champion on her back. But in the end, I see Rousey catching McMann with a submission from the bottom, as she pulls off yet another armbar victory.

> Rousey via Round 3 submission

Here are the rest of my predictions for the main card and preliminary bouts:

Main Card (PPV, 10 p.m. ET)
• Daniel Cormier def. Patrick Cummins
• Rory MacDonald def. Demian Maia
• T.J. Waldburger def. Mike Pyle.
• Robert Whittaker def. Stephen Thompson

Prelim Card (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET)
• Alexis Davis def. Jessica Eye
• Raphael Assuncao def. Pedro Munhoz
• Aljamain Sterling def. Cody Gibson
• Zach Makovsky def. Josh Sampo

Digital Prelim Card (UFC Fight Pass, 7 p.m. ET)
• Erik Koch def. Rafaello Oliveira
• Ernest Chavez def. Yosdenis Cedeno