Empire of the Suns: Dissecting the Lakers-Warriors play-in matchup

The Phoenix Suns will be watching the Los Angeles Lakers face the Golden State Warriors in the 7-8 seed play-in game Wednesday night because they’ll be facing the winner to open the NBA Playoffs this Sunday.

Empire of the Suns podcast co-hosts Kellan Olson and Kevin Zimmerman break down what they’re keeping tabs on in the 7 p.m. game that will air on ESPN 620 AM.

Kellan Olson: Kevin! As a basketball fan, it’s hard not to be absolutely fired up for Wednesday night’s play-in game between the Lakers and Warriors.

While it’s not a “must-win game” for either team, as the loser will have one more chance to become the eighth seed, it will certainly be approached like that.

The winner, of course, will play the Suns in the first round of the playoffs.

What comes to mind first when I ask you what you’ll be watching for in the game?

Kevin Zimmerman: I guess we should get the obvious out of the way. LeBron James and the Lakers have said he’s good to go following an ankle tweak to end his regular season, but there’s reason to be skeptical.

He initially injured the ankle March 20, returned for a two-game stretch bridging April and May, then sat out until the final two games of the regular season.

Yeah, he was really good in the last two games. But a high ankle sprain showing symptoms months later is a sign that the thing isn’t structurally all that great. Even if he’s pain-free enough to drop 25 points and a triple-double, there should be reason to worry and more reason for the Lakers not wanting to extend this play-in tournament another game.

Odds are the Lakers will overwhelm the Warriors in the first play-in game, yet I think there’s a 40% chance this comes down to the wire, and Golden State has some chef guy I’ve heard about. What say you about the Warriors’ chances to pull off a surprise, and how would they do it if you’re pulling out your crystal ball?

Olson: What to watch for in the first handful of Warriors possessions is the various looks the Lakers’ league-best defense throws Steph Curry’s way. They are definitely going to blitz/trap/double him, but how tight?

Is he able to get free sometimes? When Curry passes to a teammate for those typical 4-on-3 breaks, how is the execution?

The Warriors’ ball movement will need to be crisp to beat those tactics, and it usually is. The shots falling out of that ball movement and also Curry’s ability to occasionally find open space (as he always does) are two huge keys.

Beyond that, there are a few NCAA Tournament-like ingredients in the upset recipe, because this is kind of like that! How fun is that?!

Golden State must keep Los Angeles off the offensive glass, especially given the Lakers’ size advantage, and also win the battle on the three-point line. One of those areas going in favor of Los Angeles would be bad, bad news for Steve Kerr’s squad.

If most of that comes together for the Warriors, they will absolutely be in this game. But Kevin, do you think they can stop the Lakers on the other end?

Zimmerman: Draymond Green got annoyed in a postgame interview the other night when he was asked about teams coming at him with jumbo centers — Green was quick to remind the question-asker that the Warriors kill opponents when they try to outmuscle them. That said, I would be surprised if the Lakers spent too much time bullying the Warriors with bigger lineups.

So can Green do like a cell in mitosis and split himself into two exact copies to defend Anthony Davis and LeBron James? He can’t!

Even James on a balky leg is a man you don’t want to play, with all due respect to Juan Toscano-Anderson, who topped out at pissing off Devin Booker the last time Golden State played Phoenix.

I don’t see how the Warriors match up against James-Davis small-ball lineups.

This is why the Lakers are so dangerous. They can play small with one of the best small-ball teams — and it’s a unit that emphasizes their two best players.

Over the past 15 games, the Warriors are top-7 in pace and top-6 in turnover rate. That scares the heck out of me against a Los Angeles team that led by LeBron will pick its spots of when to push the pace. If the Lakers play small, that leaves Golden State open for having a few missed shots in a row snowball into a 10-0 Los Angeles run that’s too much to overcome.

Olson: And that’s where you really get scared of this Lakers team, right? Because of the defense, experience and star power they have, it’s difficult to envision how to mount a comeback on them once they seize control of a game.

On that note, one more thing we should mention before we go is the Lakers’ three-point shooting. They are 21st in team percentage, and here are their top chuckers in attempts per game: James (6.3, 36.5%), Kyle Kuzma (5.6, 36.1%), Ben McLemore (5.4, 36.8%), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (4.4, 41.0%), Dennis Schroder (3.5, 33.5%) and Wesley Matthews (3.4, 33.5%).

Not exactly a murderer’s row of sharpshooting. All it takes is one night of those guys getting cold and then there’s a chance they have to fight their tails off to win.

With that said, I’m still picking the Lakers. How about you friend?

Zimmerman: The Pacers hammering the Hornets behind leading scorer Oshae Brissett in the first NBA play-in game Tuesday was a reminder that if one team is eye-rolling or sleepy about being in a play-in game, it’s going to pay.

The Lakers — at least LeBron — have already expressed their displeasure about the play-in situation. But they’ve had time to accept their fate and we’ve discussed all the reasons they have to show up locked in. I think we’ll see their best.

I’m still picking the Lakers, even if my heart wants a Warriors win and chaos.

Follow @AZSports