PFF: Cardinals’ Kyler Murray a darkhorse fantasy football QB1 candidate for 2024

Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray enters Year 6 in what will be his first full season since tearing his ACL in November 2022.

Pro Football Focus’ Jonathon Macri has Murray as a darkhorse fantasy football QB1 candidate for the 2024 season.

The Cardinals’ signal caller has an average fantasy draft position of QB8 per Sleeper, QB7 per Underdog and QB9 per ESPN.

Murray is no stranger to finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback, doing so as a rookie and in each of the two seasons that followed. However, due to missed time in 2022 and 2023, it’s been three years since his last top-12 finish. This season is primed to be his best chance of not only returning to that form but also potentially back closer to his 2020 form when he finished as the overall QB2.

When Murray returned in Week 10 for the final eight games of the 2023 season, he posted a 3-5 record and showed flashes of what he’s capable of.

Across those eight games, Murray completed 65.7% of his throws and threw for 1,799 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.

He also ran for 244 yards and three touchdowns. After Murray returned, the Cardinals’ points per game total climbed from 16.7 to nearly 20 in the final eight matchups.

Across the final four games in 2023, he was even better and produced 935 yards and seven touchdowns to three interceptions on a 70.3% completion rate.

Murray played just eight full games in 2023 and 10 in 2022 but showcased his high-end fantasy potential with 11 top-12 finishes (61%) in those 18 games while never finishing worse than QB22 in the weeks he played more than a quarter of the game. Murray’s floor remains high because of his high-end rushing upside, as he averaged 4.5 runs per game last season that accounted for 5.3 fantasy points per game — sixth at the position.

The forthcoming season will be just the second for Murray alongside Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon.

In addition, Murray’s offense will look a lot different in 2024 following the departures of wide receivers Rondale Moore (trade) and Hollywood Brown (free agency). The Cardinals added wide receiver Zay Jones in free agency and also drafted Marvin Harrison Jr., tight end Tip Reiman and running back Trey Benson.

However, tight end Trey McBride will continue to be a mainstay in Arizona’s offense. McBride set a Cardinals’ franchise record for catches by a tight end in a season as he led all Cardinals in receiving with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns. In the eight games he played with Murray, McBride had 53 receptions for 538 yards with two touchdowns.

Murray’s shortened 2022 and 2023 seasons resulted in his two lowest passing grades since his rookie year … Murray earned an 86.3 PFF passing grade over those two seasons, which were also the most productive fantasy years of his career when he had DeAndre Hopkins as his top target. Hopkins earned an 89.9 PFF receiving grade over that span (seventh at the position), but Murray hasn’t had a top receiving option like that since, including 2022 Hopkins, who just wasn’t as effective as he once was by that point. Tight end Trey McBride is one of those top options, and the addition of the top wide receiver in the 2024 draft, Marvin Harrison Jr., should provide the perfect combination of receiving talent to help push Murray over the top as a fantasy asset in 2024.

PFF says Murray’s path to 2024 QB1 includes him having a history of 20-plus fantasy points per game, having high-end rushing ability and a 70%-plus adjusted completion rate ability.

However, his “borderline” above average passing ability and “borderline” 90.0-plus receiving grade from his top receiving option are the biggest question marks.

 Murray’s last two full seasons resulted in over 3,900 passing yards and at least 425 rushing yards, which both resulted in top-12 finishes at the position. His first full season since 2021 should allow everything to come together once again to potentially top those marks, making him the best candidate as the darkhorse fantasy QB1 this year.

Follow @AZSports