NL West race between Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres is on

It was not too long ago when the Los Angeles Dodgers looked poised to run away with the National League West again, leading the field by 8.5 games back on July 22.

But the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have sprinted back into contention with the best two records in baseball since July began, creating a three-way race for a division dominated by one team for more than a decade.

Arizona entered Friday’s slate only 3.5 games back of the Dodgers. San Diego was 2.5 games back. Los Angeles had not led by fewer than 3.5 games since April 25, but Arizona is 22-10 and San Diego is 18-10 since the start of July.

Over its last 30 games, Los Angeles sits below .500 at 14-16. Could you imagine the discourse if the Dodgers, who spent $1 billion on two players over the offseason, started the year 14-16?

The last time the NL West had three teams finish with seven games of each other was in 2009, as the Dodgers are seldom challenged by even one team.

Last year, the Diamondbacks and Dodgers were neck and neck for the NL West lead entering the All-Star break. Arizona went on to lose 20 of 25 games before turning it around and claiming a wild card spot.

The Dodgers finished August 2023 with a 24-5 record and won the division by 16 games after doing so by 22 games in 2022. The San Francisco Giants bested Los Angeles by one game in 2021, needing 107 wins to do so before getting knocked out by the Dodgers in the NLDS. Before then, L.A. had won the division eight straight years.

But now, the Padres and Diamondbacks — who eliminated the Dodgers in the last two respective postseasons — provide a new threat.

FanGraphs‘ postseason odds gave the Dodgers a 94.2% chance to win the west back on July 22. That has plummeted to 70%, which if anything shows that this is an increasingly attainable goal. Arizona has not captured the west since 2011 and San Diego not since 2006.

The Diamondbacks were 11.5 games back of the Dodgers on July 2 when they arrived at Chavez Ravine. They went onto not only hang with them but nearly complete a sweep, taking two of three games before doing the same in San Diego. The only two losses were blown saves, and Arizona has not lost a series since.

To get back in the race, the Diamondbacks have put up runs, a lot of them. Arizona has the highest-scoring offense in baseball, entering Friday with 598 runs, ahead of the New York Yankees at 594. Since July 1, the D-backs have hit a league-high 59 home runs.

Eugenio Suarez and Corbin Carroll have turned on the power after very slow starts, and Josh Bell adds another home run threat from the trade deadline. Ketel Marte has entered MVP contention against favorite Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers; adding another wrinkle in the NL West race.

Arizona’s defense has remained stellar, and the pitching has been effective enough, particularly from Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson in the starting rotation. How the bullpen handles its closer-by-committee down the stretch will be a key factor over however many weeks they apply the strategy.

Both division challengers have another series against L.A. and each other before the end of the season.

Arizona hosts both rivals, starting with the Dodgers on Aug. 30. The Padres come to Chase Field for the last series of the regular season.

Injuries impact the NL West

All three teams have had to play through injury torture this season, and none of them can seem to shake it.

The Diamondbacks got Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery and now Eduardo Rodriguez back from the IL with Merrill Kelly closing in on a Sunday return. Restoring a full rotation again is a significant development. Yet Arizona placed first baseman Christian Walker and catcher Gabriel Moreno on the IL in the last couple weeks.

San Diego has had injuries impact the rotation all year. Starter Yu Darvish has been on the restricted list for a month, Joe Musgrove has been slidlined since May and slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on the shelf since June 22.

The Dodgers have had an overwhelming number of pitching injuries this season, including to prized free agent signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts has been down for nearly two months but is nearing a return. Buehler is also nearly back, as well, although Yamamoto reportedly has a ways to go.

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