Diamondbacks remaining playoff clinching scenarios following loss to Padres

After a 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres on Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks will now need a little bit of help in order to clinch a spot in the 2024 MLB playoffs.

With the Braves’ win versus the Royals on Friday, Arizona (88-72) sits in virtual tie with the New York Mets (87-71) and Atlanta (87-71) without a tiebreaker over either team.

The Mets and Braves play a doubleheader on Monday due to postponements from Hurricane Helene, so they each have four games left to Arizona’s two.

Fangraphs’ odds have Arizona (37.7), behind Atlanta (91) and New York (71.3) to make the playoffs entering play on Saturday.

The Padres (92-68) locked up the the top Wild Card spot with a win on Friday and clinched home field advantage in the Wild Card round. The only thing left the Padres have to play for is the role of spoiler if San Diego wants to potentially keep its NL West opponent from making the playoffs.

Will the Diamondbacks make the playoffs? D-backs clinching scenarios

2 wins by Arizona

With two wins, the Diamondbacks would reach 90 wins, while the Mets and Braves eliminate the chance to both crack 90 with three more defeats between them.

The Diamondbacks would clinch a playoff spot with two wins and a loss by either the Mets or Braves before the doubleheader.

1 win by Arizona

With only one win, Arizona would have to wait until the Monday doubleheader between the Braves and Mets unless the two teams both lose their next two games or combine for a 1-3 record the rest of this weekend.

The D-backs would need the Mets or Braves to finish 1-3 or worse overall.

No wins by Arizona

Arizona would need the Mets or Braves to lose out to clinch a playoff spot. The D-backs would not be in a position to clinch before Monday if they are swept by San Diego.

Unfavorable matchups to help the D-backs

Despite losing to the Braves on Friday, the Royals clinched a playoff spot with a loss by the Minnesota Twins.

The only thing left to gain for Kansas City is Wild Card positioning as it is sitting one game behind the Detroit Tigers for the second Wild Card spot entering Saturday. The Royals can’t advance any further with the Baltimore Orioles already locking up the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

Seth Lugo (3.03 ERA) starts for Kansas City against Atlanta’s Reynaldo Lopez (2.03 ERA) in Saturday’s matchup.

The Mets are coming off a 8-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are the NL Central champs locked into the third division winner spot behind the Dodgers and Phillies. It was a costly win for the Brewers, with Right fielder Sal Frelick leaving the game in the fourth inning after crashing into the sidewall while trying to make a leaping catch of a foul ball.

With the injury, it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy plays it safe and begins resting starters for the rest of the series.

Lefty reliever Jared Koenig (2.51 ERA) will start on Saturday for the Brewers against Mets pitcher Jose Quintana (3.74 ERA).

Doubleheader impacts Diamondbacks

Failing to clinch before Monday’s doubleheader is a tenuous possibility for the Diamondbacks.

That scenario could see either the Mets or Braves clinching in the first game of their doubleheader and slamming the brakes to preserve their top starters, relievers and position players for a second game in which the other club needs a win to get in. If the D-backs win 90 games but both the Mets and Braves sit at 89 entering Monday, that’s a problem.

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