AD Graham Rossini: ASU football tracking bowl scenarios with Big 12 title in play

Arizona State football is entrenched in a tight race to the Big 12 championship game with three weeks left in the regular season, and athletic director Graham Rossini is “anxiously tracking” all the scenarios.

ASU is one of four teams with a 4-2 conference record, one game back of 5-1 Colorado and two behind undefeated BYU. There are two more teams at 4-3.

The Sun Devils visit fellow 4-2 squad Kansas State this week and then host BYU before closing with the Territorial Cup against Arizona. By not facing Colorado, the Sun Devils will need some help to crack the top two.

"It's a thrill to be in the conversations."

Arizona State AD Graham Rossini shows @BurnsAndGambo his bowl game scenarios sheet. pic.twitter.com/5FY7E27LhP

— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) November 14, 2024

“We just had a meeting with our team kind of going over bowl scenarios and starting to lay some groundwork on the trip planning,” Rossini told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo, showing the back of his scenarios cheat sheet. “We’re thankful that between (senior associate AD of operations and facilities) Mike Chismar and (assistant AD for football operations) Bryan McGinnis, who do an unbelievable job moving the football team throughout the year … they came prepared with all the bowl scenarios, including some very aspirational ones, but that’s within reach.

“There’s a lot riding on these next three weeks of the regular season to really figure out where we can take this.”

ASU will be operating as a Pac-12 legacy program, meaning bowl games historically tied to the Pac-12 will be in play for the Sun Devils.

Arizona State likely needs three wins to contend for the Big 12 title game, and the conference has an expansive tiebreaking system if two or more teams are in lockstep.

If the battle comes between two teams, the head-to-head record is the top tiebreaker, followed by the winning percentage against common conference opponents.

For three or more tied programs, if one team defeats the rest, it moves on. The next tiebreaker is the winning percentage against all common conference opponents. There are more head-to-head games between these contending teams beyond ASU-KSU this weekend, so that picture remains messy.

ASU has yet to play any team currently holding a 4-2 record or better in the conference, thus propping up the importance of Saturday.

“It’s just a good feeling to be in that conversation where we know that our team can play our way into some really important scenarios,” Rossini said.

A Big 12 championship trophy is not a guarantee to make the College Football Playoff, as the top five ranked conference winners crack the now-12-team CFP. The Power Four conferences do not have to be represented.

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura explained that the most likely scenario is the Big 12 gets one team into the CFP.

For the Big 12 to get two bids, BYU probably would have to finish 12-0, then lose a close game in the championship to a two-loss team. A 12-1 BYU team would get consideration, but it would become a question of how far it would fall and what else happens around the country. …

The doomsday scenario in the Big 12 is if the conference champion has two or three losses and Army and Boise State win out. If that’s the case, there is a good possibility both of those schools would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 champion and the Big 12 would be left out.

The Sun Devils will enter Manhattan, Kansas, coming off two straight wins and getting star running back Cam Skattebo back from injury, barring a setback.

ASU has already locked down a bowl game with a 7-2 record, and Rossini saw a team not satisfied during Saturday’s 35-31 win over UCF.

“I think the fact that we didn’t play our best football against UCF, and that was probably the hottest team that we played at any point in the season … gets you excited, because we’ve been in every game,” Rossini said. “I think we’re one of the best teams in the country on games that are decided by eight points or less.

“There’s that natural let up of, hey, we’re bowl eligible, we’re back home, this should be a game that we could win. That wasn’t the mindset,” he added. “These guys came ready to play, and now nobody’s satisfied with being bowl-eligible. We want to keep finding out week by week how much farther we can take this thing.”

It is a dramatic step forward from where the program has been with two straight three-win seasons before 2024.

If ASU takes care of Kansas State, the BYU game at Mountain America becomes a pseudo-playoff game for the Sun Devils’ pursuit of the Big 12 title game. Rossini said it is already sold out with a robust secondary market. That weekend is also homecoming.

“A lot riding on that one,” Rossini said. “Obviously, pride and the pageantry of homecoming, but a lot of scenarios that can play themselves out the rest of the way rise in our ability to deliver this weekend against K-State, who’s obviously very good. And then bring that magic back home against BYU.”

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