Diamondbacks counting on run prevention identity shift in 2025

Entering the 2025 campaign, the Arizona Diamondbacks don’t expect to lead the league in scoring again.

Instead, the D-backs will have to win games differently, leaning on an identity shift toward preventing runs much more effectively than in 2024.

“We are fixated on making this 2025 team as good as humanly possible,” general manager Mike Hazen told Arizona Sports’ Bickley & Marotta on Tuesday. “From a run prevention standpoint, we were one of the worst in the league, and that bothers me a lot. Moving that number even into the middle of the pack, given that we led the league in runs, we would have easily made the playoffs, and we would have won 90-plus games.”

The 2023 Diamondbacks finished around league average in both runs scored and allowed.

A young team with speed to burn, plus defense and a dynamic duo atop the rotation cracked the postseason bracket with 84 wins and used a fearless, underdog mantra to rally to the World Series.

In 2024, the identity on the field and expectations of the D-backs changed.

Adding veteran bats Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk shifted the complexion and potency of the batting order. Arizona was seemingly was good for at least six runs every night over the summer.

However, a pitching staff with sky-high expectations after adding veterans Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery faltered, in large part due to injuries that clipped five of Arizona’s primary six starting pitchers but also underperformance. Arizona allowed the third most earned runs in MLB.

The D-backs missed the playoffs in a more competitive field by a game despite 89 wins, and Hazen said he still has not gotten over it.

Christian Walker, Pederson and Grichuk are all free agents. That’s 61 homers and 191 RBIs on the market and indications are at least Walker will not be back.

The Diamondbacks still have a strong defensive identity, and the club quickly moved on from pitching coach Brent Strom and replaced him with Brian Kaplan from the Phillies to provide a new voice to the staff.

Hazen remains confident in the meat and potatoes of the roster, and the Diamondbacks are betting on the pitching staff making up for the loss of power.

“I think our run prevention has been at the forefront of what we’re trying to figure out and improve,” Hazen said. “The good thing is we have a lot of talent in that area on the field, and that talent, I think, is going to be much improved coming into this season … I’m not sure we can recreate leading the league in runs like we did, but we can, for sure, improve our run prevention.”

It’s natural to expect some improvement through availability. Arizona starters accounted for the 12th fewest innings in 2024 with five of its top six guys spending time on the injured list. Not to be overlooked, starting catcher and stalwart defender Gabriel Moreno missed extended time in the second half.

Ace Zac Gallen is in his walk year, and while his 3.65 ERA in 2024 was solid, his season was admittedly more inconsistent than he’d like. Kelly and Rodriguez only combined for only 23 starts due to shoulder issues early in the season.

Ryne Nelson had a breakout season before a late injury, while Brandon Pfaadt was a workhorse before production fell off in the final two months (6.51 ERA) — although he clutched up with a couple gems in his final three starts.

Then there is the Montgomery situation, who had a disappointing year and has been the subject of trade rumors and reports all offseason so far. Arizona has been open about fielding calls for its starters given the current six-man rotation to fill other holes.

As of the winter meetings, a lot of the D-backs’ offseason plans remain ahead of them and the exact five starters set for Opening Week remain to be determined.

Can the rotation become what was promised entering the 2024 season and give needed relief to the bullpen and offense? Even climbing back into the top half of the league for runs allowed would provide significant assistance.

“I can’t answer exactly what the roster is going to look like when we come into spring training,” Hazen said. “We have a lot of ground to cover between now and then. There’s a lot of stuff that’s going to happen. We have to explore every opportunity to make our team better.”

As the Diamondbacks continue to field calls for starting pitchers, Torey Lovullo checked in with Jordan Montgomery in his effort to bounce back. pic.twitter.com/nzwHGs032a

— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) December 11, 2024

 

What will the Diamondbacks do with the bullpen?

The bullpen was not devoid of blame, and the D-backs want to bring in someone with closing experience. That said, there are expectations for internal improvement, as well.

“The back end of our bullpen was very good. The front end of our bullpen was not very good,” Hazen said. “I think the bullpen on the whole in the back end is a pretty strong group, given stuff and experience, but I think anytime we can add to that group, it’s going to be important for us … I also suspect the maturation of those young kids that are going to be sitting in the front end of the bullpen.”

“When you’re talking about guys like A.J. Puk and then the emergence of Justin Martinez, the way they came on last year, I got a lot to be excited about,” manager Torey Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo. “The ninth can be a little bit challenging, but they both showed the ability to go out there, command the baseball and get big outs. You got Joe Mantiply and Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel, you’ve got five really strong pieces.”

Hazen alluded to games in which the D-backs trailed by three runs, and Arizona could not get its A bullpen in the game before the opponent broke it open, so there is a desire to improve depth. Arizona has a group of younger options to fill out the front end, and an intriguing option is Drey Jameson, who missed 2024 after Tommy John surgery.

In the back end, Lovullo said if he had to pick a closer today, it would probably be Puk, but that’s an open discussion to be had in spring training depending on what other moves they make.

The offense has questions, likely at 1B and DH

As for the offense, this is still a talented group with Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll at the forefront, but the lineup card is incomplete.

First base and designated hitter remain the key questions without many answers at this point in the offseason. Pavin Smith is a platoon option for either spot.

“Our front office is really good at layering in depth and guys to potentially protect Pavin if it’s a platoon situation,” Lovullo said. “You need a right-handed bat. Those are the conversations that are very obvious, but they’re the ones that are naturally being had.”

Outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas have received trade interest if the D-backs opt to pluck from an area of strength.

“It’s a possibility. You got a surplus of outfielders that are all left-handed hitters,” Lovullo said. “I don’t know that answer. … It’s going to be a little bit of a challenge for me if I do have that entire group in the lineup but something I’ll deal with. It’s all really good players.”

The stove has heated up around the game despite a lack of activity from the Diamondbacks to this point. Spring training is not for another couple months, and the D-backs have laid the foundation for future impactful moves at the winter meetings before.

Follow @alexjweiner