By the numbers: Josh Naylor will put the ball in play, but can he replicate the power?

Arizona Diamondbacks fans do not have much experience watching Josh Naylor play against their team over the years.

The new D-backs first baseman — tasked with filling a role held by Christian Walker the last six years — has only played 19 games against Arizona in his career, nine of which came as a rookie with the San Diego Padres back in 2019.

The counting stats of his 2024 season in Cleveland lay out a classic power-hitting first baseman who can pump 31 home runs and drive in 108 RBIs, which is part of the picture.

Naylor has consistently put the ball in play, but the manner of which he has done so has evolved.

With familiarity at the position for so long with Walker, let’s take a look at Naylor’s statistical profile to lay out what to expect from him in 2025, by the numbers:

D-backs 1B Josh Naylor, by the numbers

16.6% strikeout rate

For as big a swing Naylor can unload, he doesn’t really strike out often.

His 16.6% K rate landed him in the 80th percentile of MLB last year, and his 13.7% clip in 2023 finished in the 94th percentile, according to Statcast.

The average major league strikeout rate last year was 22.6%, so he’s way below that marker.

Naylor ranked sixth in the measure among primary first basemen in MLB last year, and he hit more home runs than anybody ahead of him.

That’s not to say he does not chase, because he does at a much higher rate than average. But he puts a lot of baseballs into play from 440-foot homers to pitches in the opposing batter’s box he flicks the other way.

Historically not much of a walker, Naylor drew a career high 9.2% walk rate in 2024, above the league average of 8.4. The D-backs as a team work a lot of walks (sixth in MLB since 2022) with a culture of working stubborn at-bats.

68 home runs

Naylor’s breakout with the Guardians really started in 2022 when he rattled off three straight seasons of well above average offense. He’s hit 68 home runs since: 20 in 2022, 17 in 2023 and 31 in 2024.

However, he slashed .308/.354/.489 in 2023, better numbers than his .243/.320/.456 batting line in 2024.

He did not hit as many doubles last year despite playing 31 additional games, but his exit velocities and hard hit rates were pretty consistent from the previous season. His EV improved from 89.1 mph to 89.9 mph, while his hard hit rate fell from 41.4% to 40.9%.

An area in which his results changed notably was his batting average on balls put in play, or BABIP. In 2023, he hit a perhaps unsustainable .326 on balls in play, and that nosedived to .246 in 2024.

An average BABIP for a major leaguer is around .300, so perhaps there is a path for Naylor to combine his strengths from the previous two seasons.

The Athletic’s Keith Law suggested a middle-ground batting line of about .280/.340/.480, which would certainly boost the Arizona lineup in lieu of Walker and Joc Pederson walking in free agency.

440-foot dingers

When Naylor gets ahold of the baseball, it travels.

He hit nine home runs with a projected distance of 420 feet or further last year, tied for 21st in MLB with D-backs third baseman Eugenio Suarez, among others.

Naylor’s furthest of 2024 was a 445-footer against the Minnesota Twins for his 30th of the season.

445 feet, 109.6 MPH 😤

Josh Naylor has his 30th home run of the season! pic.twitter.com/CQCgRzZp5a

— MLB (@MLB) September 18, 2024

122 wRC+

Weighted runs created plus compares players on the same playing field by taking external factors into account with the average being 100.

Naylor at 122 is 22% better than a league average hitter over the past two seasons, which ranks seventh among MLB first basemen. He slots just ahead of Pete Alonso and right behind Cody Bellinger. Walker, to compare, is very similar at 119.

He’s stepped up in moments that swing games, as well, as Naylor’s OPS in high leverage has been .915 over the last three years, according to FanGraphs.

-6 defensive runs saved

If Naylor can replicate Walker’s production on offense, that would be a big win for Arizona. But defensively, there is no replacing the best first baseman in MLB.

Naylor does not have elite defensive metrics, and outs above average are kinder than defensive runs saved for him. OAA measures the ability to get to balls and record outs, while DRS puts a number on how many runs a defender saved.

Naylor finished the 2023 season with five OAA and 0 DRS at first base, although those metrics declined last year to 1 OAA and -6 DRS.

The D-backs are optimistic he can play a capable first base to help an otherwise terrific defensive unit.

“He’s a solid first baseman, he works really hard at it and we’re going to push him pretty hard,” general manager Mike Hazen said after trading for Naylor. “We value that pretty heavily, and because he works hard, I think we’re gonna get a very good first baseman next year.”

He has played over 1,000 innings of corner outfield throughout his career, but his numbers are not pretty out there.

Play No. 9 of 2024: The stretch, the spin, the throw, the pick 🤯

An otherworldly sequence by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor in the ALCS! pic.twitter.com/j9E1xTjj6p

— MLB (@MLB) December 9, 2024

25 steals

Naylor has not stolen a ton of bases throughout his career with only 25 in six years.

He swiped six bags last year and is not particularly fast, but he’s about to join a team with Dave McKay coaching first base. There will be opportunities to advance.

4.9 wins above replacement (WAR)

Since the start of 2023, Naylor has accounted for 4.9 WAR from FanGraphs and 3.9 WAR from Baseball Reference, as they account for defense differently.

Using FanGraphs’ measurements, Naylor is 11th in MLB among first basemen in value over the past years. Walker is fifth with 6.9 fWAR (6.4 rWAR).

19 postseason games

Naylor has been apart of three playoff runs in Cleveland, totaling 19 postseason games and 81 plate appearances. His numbers are not amazing, and he struggled with the strikeouts last October. He’s also put up some clutch moments. He homered off Gerrit Cole in 2022 — and rocked the baby all the way around the bases.

Josh Naylor crushes a 405 foot solo homer off of Gerrit Cole and celebrated by carrying a baby around the bases.

🎥 @MLB pic.twitter.com/zpGpVW4cL5

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 17, 2022

He drove in three runs on two hits in a crazy Game 4 loss to the Yankees in the 2024 NLCS, including an RBI single on a pitch way outside.

JOSH NAYLOR BRINGS IN TWO ON THE DOUBLE‼️

We got a one-run game in the seventh 👀

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/MDzcf8nQb7

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 19, 2024

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