Corbin Burnes to make long-awaited return. Here’s what to expect

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been waiting 465 days for star pitcher and prized 2025 free agent signee Corbin Burnes to make his next start, and the four-time All-Star will return on Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals.

Burnes’ road back has not gone exactly to plan due to a teres major strain he suffered while building up from elbow surgery, but he was steadfast on pitching by the end of this season.

Manager Torey Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo back on Friday that Burnes returning on Tuesday was the “worst-kept secret.”

He will not be able to give the Diamondbacks a typical 90-100-pitch start right away, as he will continue to increase his pitch count at the major league level.

How deep into games can Corbin Burnes go for the Diamondbacks?

Burnes threw 17 pitches through two innings in a rehab game for Triple-A Reno on Aug. 29, and he continued to build up his pitch count in the bullpen. He took another step forward in a bridge camp game on Thursday with 43 pitches.

Lovullo said that Burnes would probably be able to get to 60 pitches in his next start, a 3-5-inning range depending on his efficiency.

The D-backs talked about starting Burnes last Friday for three innings and 45 pitches but opted to build him up a bit more.

General manager Mike Hazen told Arizona Sports’ Bickley & Marotta last week that Burnes building up to five or six innings by the end of the season would be a realistic goal.

Burnes signed the most lucrative deal in Diamondbacks history at six years and $210 million after the 2024 season — with an opt-out after this year. The 2021 Cy Young winner had never been injured in his big league career, but he only made 11 starts last year before needing an internal brace procedure.

His shoulder strain setback prevented him from getting back around the All-Star break, but Burnes was clear that he was not giving up on this season.

In terms of expectations, Lovullo is maintaining a high standard.

“I think every situation is different,” Lovullo said. “You look at Sandy Alcantara, who came back after a similar type of elbow injury. It took him several starts to get going and back into the shape and form that he was pre and now is today. That’ll depend on each person.

“The one thing we all love about Corbin is his drive and determination and his ability to overcome even though he knows he hasn’t thrown a big league baseball for 15 months. I think he’s the one guy that you could throw everything out the window and say he’s going to be spot-on when he joins us.”

Burnes’ cutter velocity in Reno was down 1.6 mph, albeit he only threw two innings in his first game action in more than a year. His velocity was not the reason to push his start back from Friday, Lovullo adamantly said.

The Diamondbacks used seven pitchers to get through a 10-inning bullpen game on Monday, defeating the Royals 5-4. They maintained a half-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot by doing so.

Maneuvering Burnes’ debut with a taxed bullpen will be complex, but the club has been waiting for the opportunity to give their ace the baseball for 15 months.

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