What are the Diamondbacks’ narrow paths to the postseason?

PHOENIX — The Arizona Diamondbacks have entered the final week of the regular season needing a miracle to reach the postseason.

The Diamondbacks remain alive in the race for a National League Wild Card spot with six games left, but FanGraphs gives them a 5.4% chance to crack the bracket for the first time since 2023.

Here are the NL Wild Card standings following Sunday’s action (remaining opponents):

1. Cubs 87-69 (Marlins, @ Red Sox)
2. Padres 87-69 (@ Dodgers, Diamondbacks)
3. Phillies 86-70 (Brewers, Rays)
4. Diamondbacks 82-74 (@Rockies, @Padres)

None of these four teams play on Monday.

What is the Diamondbacks’ elimination number?

The Diamondbacks’ elimination number is three.

Arizona cannot be eliminated on Tuesday. The earliest the Diamondbacks can be knocked out of playoff contention is Wednesday.

The Cubs won the season series tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, so the only way for Arizona to pass them would be to win out while the Cubs lose out. Chicago’s magic number is one.

There are more scenarios for the D-backs to catch the other two teams.

The Padres and Diamondbacks are 5-5 against each other, so the final series will determine the tiebreaker, if applicable.

Arizona and Philadelphia split their season series, and the next tiebreaker is record within one’s division. The D-backs have the advantage there, 28-18 to 28-24.

The Padres’ magic number is two.

The Phillies’ magic number is three, which doubles as the D-backs’ tragic number.

How can the Diamondbacks catch the Padres?

The final series of the regular season will do much of the lifting there.

The D-backs cannot climb to within one game of the Padres before that last set, meaning they would have to set themselves up to sweep the Padres. Being back two games or three games makes no difference; a sweep would be required anyway.

In order for Arizona to get within three games of San Diego with three to play, the following would have to happen:

• Diamondbacks sweep Rockies, Padres lose 2/3 or get swept by Dodgers
• Diamondbacks win 2/3 vs. Rockies, Padres get swept by Dodgers

A series loss in Colorado would take the D-backs out of the race against the Padres, no matter what, as would a San Diego series win in Los Angeles.

San Diego is running out the top of its rotation for this Dodgers series with Michael King (3.03 ERA), Robbie Ray (3.60) and Nick Pivetta (3.30) pitching, in order. The Padres are 14-4 in September so far, playing their best baseball at the most opportune time.

The Dodgers have the NL West wrapped up, and they lead the Atlanta Braves for the second seed by four games. The top two seeds receive Wild Card Series byes, so locking up that race is still meaningful to L.A.

How can the Diamondbacks catch the Phillies?

The Phillies are 8-10 in September, sinking back into the race for the third NL Wild Card spot as opposed to the NL East crown.

In order for the D-backs to catch Philadelphia, one of the following would have to happen:

• Diamondbacks go 6-0, Phillies go 2-4 or worse
• Diamondbacks go 5-1, Phillies go 1-5 or worse
• Diamondbacks go 4-2, Phillies go 0-6

The Brewers are two games ahead of the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL.

Probables for the series opener are Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (2.99) against Milwaukee’s Dustin May (4.61). Aaron Nola (4.49) is probable for the second game opposite Logan Henderson (2.51).

The Rays, meanwhile, are on the precipice of clinching the AL East and locking up the top seed in the American League with a magic number of winning the division at two. They will likely have nothing to play for during the final weekend unless the New York Yankees sweep them this week.

Of course, Arizona closing the gap with Philadelphia involves winning games against the Padres anyway. There is a scenario in which the Padres clinch a playoff spot against the Dodgers and face the D-backs with fewer stakes. That could help Arizona’s pursuit of the Phillies, in theory.

Any chance for a 3-way tie?

A three-way tie is possible:

• Diamondbacks go 6-0, Padres go 1-5, Phillies go 2-4
• Diamondbacks go 5-1, Padres go 0-6, Phillies go 1-5

Here is the three-way tiebreaker scenario, via MLB.com:

If the three clubs do not have identical records against one another, then there are two possibilities:

a. If Club 1 has a better record against Clubs 2 and 3, then Club 1 qualifies.

b. If no club has a better record against the other two clubs, then the clubs will be ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst the other clubs combined. The club with the highest overall winning percentage in that group qualifies.

This would favor the Phillies, who won all six games against the Padres this year. The D-backs, in this scenario, would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres and claim the final spot.

The Athletic ran simulations that suggested if the Diamondbacks win out, they would likely make the playoffs (64%). Anything short of that, and they would overwhelmingly likely be eliminated (14% for 5-1, for example).

The D-backs won their final two home games against the Yankees to at least hit the road on a positive. The more they can extend that winning streak, the further they can keep the possibility of a Hail Mary in San Diego alive.

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