Cardinals among QB-needy teams with best odds for 2027 No. 1 overall pick

The Arizona Cardinals’ chances of losing a lot of games and landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft are expectedly high.

How high? ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the Cardinals the third-best odds behind only the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

ESPN’s Seth Walder writes:

The Dolphins face the third-hardest schedule and the Jets face the sixth easiest. So Miami has a 20.1% chance to earn the No. 1 pick, while the Jets are at 17.1%. The Cardinals and Browns follow behind at 15.3% and 12.8%, respectively. Those four teams have the best shot to land Arch Manning, Dante Moore or one of the many other quarterback prospects expected to be in the 2027 draft.

While the Dolphins may be set on going the quarterback route after signing Malik Willis in free agency, the three other teams near the top are likely going to be looking for a signal caller next April.

The FPI didn’t stop at the No. 1 pick odds, either.

The Cardinals, who rank 29th out of 32 NFL teams on the FPI rankings at this point in the offseason, have the second-best odds at landing a top-five pick.

Arizona also has its work cut out for it when it comes to making a splash in the division, thanks to having three teams who could realistically be the No. 1 seed in the NFC this year after they were all in the mix in 2025.

The last time that two teams from the same division made the top five of the FPI’s preseason ratings was 2022 (Bengals and Ravens). But the NFC West boasts three teams in the top five this year, an outrageous show of strength for the league’s top division.

We’ve outlined why the Rams are the favorite, but they’re only a plurality favorite at 46.0%. The Seahawks are next with a 27.8% chance, closely followed by the 49ers at 26.1%. The Cardinals won the division in only 0.1% of our simulations.

Having a first-year head coach in Mike LaFleur, a complicated quarterback situation and questions at pass rusher and offensive line don’t help boost Arizona’s chances, either.

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