Derby for dummies: NBC aims to make Run for Roses accessible to everyone
May 5, 2017, 11:53 AM | Updated: 2:23 pm
The Kentucky Derby is one of the best and most widely viewed sporting events American sports have to offer. Two years ago, when American Pharaoh began his triple-crown run, the Derby averaged 16 million viewers, and the 2016 race, won by Nyquist, averaged 15.5 million.
The 143rd Run for the Roses will draw millions more viewers on Saturday, pulling gamblers, fashion mavens, horse lovers and fans of the actual competition in for a glimpse of the annual spectacle at Churchill Downs. Therein lies the problem for NBC’s coverage.
While the race audience is huge, it is also diverse and full of casual fans. Most viewers tune in to horse racing for this four-week sweet spot that features the Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, and then tune out for the rest of the year.
“We get a wide demographic of people who tune in,” said NBC analyst Ed Olczyk, who is also NBC’s lead analyst for the Stanley Cup playoffs. “We know we’re not just catering to the hardcore horse players and gamblers, so our coverage has to reflect that.”
That reality necessitates a wide range of topics and content.
“It’s a big production, but for this event for us at NBC, it’s about seeing everything that goes with the race, from behind-the-scenes work to the life stories of the jockeys and horses to actual race analysis,” Olczyk said. “What I try to do is not talk to the horse player or gambler, but to the novice — give enough information for the layman to understand exactly what I’m looking at, what the pros are looking at and maybe what they want to look at.
“At the same time, you also want people to know what it feels like. I wish everybody could get a taste of being at the Kentucky Derby because once you have that experience you get hooked. It’s the greatest two minutes in all of sports.”
Always Dreaming is the current favorite at 4-1 odds, and the favorite has won the Derby the past four years. Always Dreaming will break from the No. 5 post, which has produced nine Derby winners, most recently California Chrome in 2014.
McCraken is listed at 5-1, and will break from the No. 15 hole where American Pharoah won two years ago. Classic Empire and Irish War Cry are listed at 6-1 odds from the No. 14 and No 17 post, respectively. Classic Empire was the early favorite, but the horse will break from the No. 14 post on Saturday. Only two horses have won the Derby from that post; the last was Carry Back in 1961.
“This will definitely be the best gambling and most wide open Derby I’ve ever been a part of, and probably the most wide open in race in seven or eight years,” Olczyk said. “If people are looking for which horse to pick, I’m looking at horses that have been on the improve or have had some issues coming into the Derby.
“Post positions matter, too. In a 20-horse field, is a speed horse stuck in the 1-hole or a closer in post position No. 20? And the breeding aspect is part of it, too. Some horses are born to run the 40 and some are Boston Marathon runners.”
A few more tips from Olczyk:
— “People need to understand that none of these horses has ever run a race this far in their life yet, so there is always a level of unpredictability.”
— “On the far turn at the 1:10 or 1:12 mark, you’ll have a good handle on if your horse has a shot or not, based on the type of runner it is.”
— “Most people won’t really know where their horse is once the race starts, so look for the color of your jockey’s silks or hat and you’ll be able to pick out where he is running.”
As for dark horses, Olczyk likes Gunnevera’s closing speed, but in this particular race, he may be betting on an even longer shot.
“There’s a pretty good chance I pick a horse that’s north of 25-1 in this race,” he said. “It’s that wide open.”
143rd Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
TV: NBC
Coverage: 11:30 AM-4:20 PM
Post time: 3:34 PM
Live odds: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds
