ESPN ranks D-backs’ Greinke 65th in Top 100 players entering 2019
ESPN has ranked Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Greinke 65th on its Top 100 players list entering the 2019 season.
The network formed a panel of MLB insiders, writers, contributors and analysts to form its top 100 list. The panel also identified one stat from each player’s forecast and other information that affects the outlook of a player going into the season.
For Greinke, ESPN turned to the PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) from Baseball Prospectus. The PECOTA is described on Baseball Prospectus’ website as “a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.”
One key 2019 projection: PECOTA is one of the few projection systems that says he doesn’t get the 13 wins he needs to reach 200.
Did you know? The Bill James Handbook puts Greinke’s shot at reaching 300 wins at 13 percent. He has averaged more than 15 wins per season the past 10 years, a pace that would get him there in 2025.
The 35-year-old was ranked 38th on last year’s list after his best season since signing with Arizona. Following that ranking, Greinke finished 2018 with a 3.21 ERA, 199 strikeouts and 15 wins in 33 starts.