Schoenfield: Goldschmidt’s slump concerning as D-backs lose first place
May 22, 2018, 10:32 AM
Arizona Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt (44) is congratulated by Alex Avila (5) after scoring against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 10, 2018, in San Francisco. Goldschmidt scored on a double by Arizona's A.J. Pollock. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
(AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Losers in 11 of their last 12 games, the Arizona Diamondbacks fell out of first place in the NL West for the first time in more than seven weeks to start 2018.
Their best player so far, A.J. Pollock, is hurt.
Two of their starting pitchers are down, and the ones left have hit a wall, to relative degrees. The D-backs rank dead last in MLB with a team batting average of .217.
Paul Goldschmidt is supposed to be their best player, and with him contributing to the woes, it’s deep enough into the season for Arizona to begin worrying, writes ESPN’s David Schoenfield.
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With Arizona’s other problems looming, Schoenfield suggests that Goldschmidt could now be the most important player in baseball.
He could help the Diamondbacks begin turning things around.
Goldschmidt’s home-road slashing splits — .140/.321/.209 at home versus .265/.322/.518 on the road — don’t align with the team performing slightly better at home compared to on the road.
I don’t think it’s just the humidor. Even on the road, his strikeout rate has increased from 22.3 percent in 2017 to 30.0 percent and his walk rate has declined from 11.3 percent to 6.7 percent. Buster Olney alluded to a big issue in a recent column about hitters struggling with big-time fastballs: “Through Friday’s games, the Diamondbacks’ first baseman had seen 77 pitches of 96 mph or faster without logging a hit, the most in the majors.”
Other stats continue telling a concerning tale.
Goldschmidt’s swing-and-miss rate jumped from 22.9 percent in 2016 to 26.5 percent last year. Now, it’s 30.9 percent.
He’s falling behind more than ever, taking a first-pitch strike 66.8 percent of the time. He hasn’t registered above 59 percent (2017) since 2012.
The first baseman is also struggling more than ever making contact in the strike zone with a career-low contact percentage of 75.7. Since his rookie year, he’s not registered below 80.2 percent.
Another indicator is when he does make contact, Goldschmidt’s average exit velocity is down from 91.4 mph in 2017 to 88.8 mph. Maybe he’s hurt. Maybe all it will take is a mechanical fix he has yet to figure out. While he probably won’t continue to be this bad, Diamondbacks fans should be worried; there are some bad warning signs here.
Whatever it is, the injuries and struggles across the board for Arizona have magnified Goldschmidt’s struggles.
He’s admitted he’s not worried, and manager Torey Lovullo has echoed that he expects his All-Star to turn it around.
But after the D-backs fell a half-game behind the Colorado Rockies for the division lead — not to mention those Los Angeles Dodgers sitting just 5.5 games back as of Tuesday — it just might be time for concern.
