Hollinger: Suns overpaying Chris Paul in free agency would be easy to justify

Whatever happens in the NBA Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks, point guard Chris Paul will be embraced by Phoenix Suns fans forever.

He helped the Suns become the first team in NBA history to make the Finals after a decade-long playoff drought and has the Valley two wins away from the first title in franchise history.

But when it comes to Paul and the Suns beyond 2021, that’s where the question marks begin.

The Point God has a player option of $44.2 million for the upcoming 2021-22 NBA season.

And with Paul at 36 years old, general manager James Jones and Co. have some financial decisions to make in order to keep or better a Suns team that finished with the second-best record in the league and a Western Conference title — at minimum — for the first time in 28 years.

With free agency commencing on Aug. 3, The Athletic‘s John Hollinger projected the destinations of the top 20 free agents this summer based on BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars).

BORD$ is used to value what a given player can provide next season and Hollinger uses two variables to decipher that: the expected quality of a players’ minutes and how many minutes he’d be expected to play on an average team.

Paul has a lot of different ways to play his hand. However, his age puts a cap on the financial rewards, because of the “over-38” rule in the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Paul is 36 right now and would trigger the ”over-38” rule on any deal that goes beyond 2023-24, so he’s either looking at a two-year extension or opting out and signing a three-year deal.

If Paul were to opt out and sign a three-year deal with a team other than the Suns, the max he could make would be $123 million.

However, the Point God could sign for a max of $144 million over three years if he decides to stay in the Valley.

Based strictly on BORD$, a deal like that may look like an overpay by Phoenix, especially since Paul will be getting into his late 30s. However, given Phoenix’s position as a top contender (especially with the possibility of no Leonard next year) and Paul’s obvious leadership of said team, this is one of the easier cases to justify paying above BORD$.

In his lone season in the Valley, the Suns point guard averaged 16.4 points, 8.9 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals over 31.4 minutes per game en route to his 11th career All-Star selection.

Paul also shot 49.9% from the field, 39.5% from three-point range and an NBA-best 93.4% from the free throw line.

The Point God finished fifth in league MVP voting and received two first-place votes as well.

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