Arizona Sports’ 2017 D-backs and MLB Preview
Apr 1, 2017, 8:29 AM | Updated: Apr 3, 2017, 11:13 am
Can you believe it’s been two decades?
The Arizona Diamondbacks take the field for their 20th season in the Major Leagues in 2017, and it all gets underway Sunday afternoon against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field.
The D-backs shook up their leadership mix in the offseason, bringing in former Red Sox general manager Mike Hazen to oversee the baseball operations. Chip Hale was fired after just two seasons as the field manager and Hazen tabbed former Boston bench coach Torey Lovullo to take over in the dugout.
That’s where most of the change occurred. There wasn’t the huge roster shakeup many expected after a disappointing and frustrating 69-win campaign last year. Most notably, second baseman Jean Segura, who led the team with 203 hits in 2016, was shipped off to Seattle in a deal that brings talented, but underachieving right-hander Taijuan Walker to the desert.
Catcher Welington Castillo wasn’t brought back, either. Instead, the D-backs are trading offense for defense and game management and will employ a catcher-by-committee philosophy with Chris Iannetta, Jeff Mathis and Chris Herrmann playing behind the plate.
While there is optimism for improvement, much of the concern centers around the pitching staff. The rotation, headed up by Zack Greinke, must be better than it was in 2016 for the D-backs to ascend in the National League West standings. Starters combined to go 46-69 with an inflated 5.19 ERA last season. Arizona is counting on a return to form by Greinke, fellow right-hander Shelby Miller and lefty Patrick Corbin — all of whom struggled mightily.
The bullpen looks different as well, with veteran closer Fernando Rodney shoring up the back end.
But the sledding could be tough in the division, where the Dodgers and Giants have finished 1-2 the last three seasons and show no signs of letting up.
Here, our staff here at Arizona Sports offers their thoughts and predictions on what will occur for the D-backs and around baseball over the next seven months.
What is your prediction for the D-backs’ 2017 record, where will they finish in the NL West, and why?
Ron Wolfley, Co-host of Doug and Wolf – I think the D-backs will struggle to win more than 75-games as I struggle to make predictions. Affronting the athletic process sucks buttermilk but deadlines demand an answer: 75-87 and fourth in the NL West.
Doug Franz, Co-host of Doug and Wolf – I’ve got them 78-84…fourth place, ahead of San Diego.
There are too many “ifs.” If Greinke wins 20…if Miller and Corbin bounce back…if Robbie Ray lowers his pitch count…if Goldy is Goldy…if Pollock stays healthy; if Tomas can defend, hit and do a sit-up.
Paul Calvisi, Arizona Sports 98.7 FM and KTAR News 92.3 FM – Even minus NL hits leader Jean Segura, the D-backs will be better at the plate and in the field. However, what special teams units were to the AZ Cardinals, the bullpen will prove to be to the D-backs – costly. 76-86, good for fourth place in National League West.
Bertrand Berry – Host of Off the Edge with B-Train – I’ve got them going 82-80.
Dan Bickley – Co-host of Bickley and Marotta – The Diamondbacks will finish with a 74-88 record, finishing in fourth place in the National League West. Their offense will flourish and I love their infield, but pitching will be their downfall.
Vince Marotta – Co-host of Bickley and Marotta – Improvement will happen, but that’s not saying much, is it? The Arizona infield has the chance to be offensively devastating, but lineup-wise, the key is Pollock’s health. The bulk of the questions are about pitching. I’m more concerned about Greinke’s two injuries and performance last year than I am about his decreased velocity this spring. If Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin figure things out, they could push the 80-win mark, but I don’t think both of them will. I think the D-backs finish fourth in the West with a 75-87 mark.
John Gambadoro, Co-host of Burns and Gambo – The D-backs will finish fourth behind Dodgers, Giants and Rockies in the West with a record of 78-84.
Dave Burns, Co-host of Burns and Gambo – I’ve got the D-backs finishing fourth in the West, largely because of the uncertainty of the roster. If this team doesn’t make a push before the All-Star break you could see some trades — perhaps big trades — with an eye towards a long rebuild. I think if left alone, they’ll show an improvement over last year. They can’t be that bad, can they? Don’t answer that. Let’s say 76-86.
Craig Grialou – Reporter, ArizonaSports.com – The D-backs will be an improved team in 2017 (can they be much worse than a year ago?) but they will still fall short of making the playoffs, finishing behind both the Dodgers and Giants a pair of teams that are 1) more talented and 2) have the financial means to overcome injuries and struggles.
77-85 – third place in NL West.
Steve Zinsmeister – Producer for Doug and Wolf – I think 76-86 is a pretty good estimate for the Diamondbacks in 2017. I don’t think they can be as bad as last year, but I also don’t believe they have made enough changes to expect them to reach .500. The Dodgers and Giants will simply spend their way to first and second place in the division, while the Rockies solid lineup will get them third place. The Diamondbacks are fourth, and the Padres bring up the rear — I dare you to name three starters in San Diego’s lineup.
Adam Green – Co-host of Arizona Sports Saturday and reporter for ArizonaSports.com – With better health, a more consistent rotation and reasonable bounce-back performances from key players, the D-backs should have no choice but to improve on last year’s mark, and they will finish 76-86. That will be good enough for fourth in the NL West, ahead of only the Padres.
Paige Dimakos – Social media manager for Arizona Sports – My prediction for this year’s team is to win 80 games. I expect them to be better this year but pitching is huge question mark and will ultimately keep this team from competing for the playoffs. New GM Mike Hazen and company have their work cut out for them in rebuilding the farm system and getting this team into playoff contention. They finish fourth in the west behind the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers.
Luke Lapinski – Reporter for ArizonaSports.com – I think they’ll go 80-82, good for third in the West. Still some very legitimate questions in the rotation, but they’re a better team than they showed last year. Having a healthy Pollock for even half a season is worth a few more wins, Corbin looks better and Miller can’t be worse.
Jordan Byrd – Co-host of Arizona Sports Saturday and producer for Burns and Gambo – 76-86, third in NL West. The D-backs will be better than last year due to their offense being aided by a (hopefully) full season of A.J. Pollock and David Peralta, but runs won’t be the problem. The uncertainty of the bullpen will ultimately be the reason the D-backs don’t reach above .500 and with the Giants and Dodgers still in the division, they reach no higher than third place.
Andy Greenberg – Producer for ‘Off the Edge with B-Train’ – 74-88, just barely third in the West. At the very least, we’ll see an improvement overall from last year but nobody should expect to contend for the playoffs. If they’re on a pace to lose 100 games by the trade deadline then don’t be surprised to see Hazen fire up the trade machine and sell Goldy, Greinke and potentially others to fill the farm system with prospects, much like his mentor and former boss Theo Epstein.
Who will be the D-backs’ breakout player in 2017?
Drury, the 24-year-old, realistically started his breakout last season when he clubbed 16 home runs and batted .282. He ended the season on a high note, going deep six times and slashing .357/.417/.633 in 98 at-bats in September and October. He’s locked down the every-day second base job for Arizona, so these already impressive numbers figure to go up in 2017.
Full voting: Brandon Drury (12 votes), Shelby Miller (1), Robbie Ray (1), Ildemaro Vargas (1)
Will Shelby Miller return to his pre-2016 form?
Miller was probably the most talked-about Diamondback player last year, for all the wrong reasons. It all started in December of 2015 when he was the centerpiece of a trade that sent three players, including one of the top prospects in baseball, to Atlanta. The D-backs thought Miller would be a perfect complement to Greinke atop the rotation. He wasn’t. He went 2-12 with a 6.15 ERA while his WHIP ballooned to 1.673. He’d endure two different stints in the minors before returning to the big league club for good in late August. Miller’s last start of the year was his best — a five-inning, rain-shortened complete game shutout of the Nationals on Sept. 28. The right-hander, while not putting up great stats this spring, opened eyes with increased velocity, hitting 99 MPH on several occasions against Cactus League hitters.
If you’re wondering about his pre-2016 form? Miller went 32-35 with a 3.22 ERA in 575.1 innings with the Cardinals and Braves before heading to the desert.
How many wins will Zack Greinke post in 2017?
Everyone in our 15-member panel predicts at least 14 wins for the D-backs’ ace. Even though he wasn’t close to the pitcher he had been prior to signing with Arizona, Greinke still won 13 games in 2016. It was his lowest win total since going 10-14 for the Kansas City Royals in 2010.
The high end of the spectrum in our voting was 17 wins, as projected by Craig Grialou and Andy Greenberg.
But there is the issue of Greinke’s future in Arizona should the D-backs stumble in the season’s first half. “Depends on what team he is on in the second half of the season,” John Gambadoro answered. “But should he remain a D-back, I will go with 14 wins.”
Who will lead the D-backs in home runs this season?
News flash: Paul Golschmidt did not lead the Arizona Diamondbacks in home runs last year. He was actually third on the team with 24 home runs, trailing Yasmany Tomas (31) and Jake Lamb (29).
That dip in power did not sway the majority of our panel away from picking Goldy to pace the team in home runs this season. Twelve of 15 voters tabbed Goldschmidt, with the average projection for his dinger total coming in at 33.7.
Full voting: Paul Goldschmidt(12 votes), Jake Lamb (2), Brandon Drury (1)
Who will win the National League West?
Since the D-backs last celebrated a National League West title in 2011, it’s been a California stranglehold on the crown. The San Francisco Giants reigned atop the division in 2012 and since then, it’s been the Dodgers’ show.
Los Angeles is gunning for its fifth straight division championship, and the majority of our panel thinks it will happen. The Dodgers got 10 votes, with the Giants grabbing the other five.
Who will play in the World Series and who will win it?
| Voter | NL Pennant | AL Pennant | Series Champ |
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| Bertrand Berry |  |
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| Jordan Byrd |  |
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| Paige Dimakos | |
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| John Gambadoro | |
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| Craig Grialou | |
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| Luke Lapinski | |
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| Vince Marotta | |
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| Ron Wolfley | |
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| Steve Zinsmeister | |
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National League MVP?
The amazingly-coiffed Bryce Harper of Washington and Colorado stat machine Nolan Arenado topped the voting, each garnering four. Harper will be an interesting study in 2017 because he wasn’t very good last year. After winning the MVP two seasons ago, Harper saw his numbers fall drastically in 2016. He hit 18 fewer home runs, scored 34 fewer runs, his batting average dipped 87 points and his OPS was down from 1.109 to .814. His talent is undeniable and will be the biggest factor in a resurgence this year.
Arenado, the Rockies’ 25-year-old third baseman, is one of only two players to eclipse the 40-homer mark in the last two seasons (Seattle’s Nelson Cruz is the other). Arenado has also driven in 263 runs since the beginning of the 2015 season. He’s also a defensive wizard at the hot corner, winning the last four NL Gold Gloves. The problem is, he’s never played on a team that’s won more than 75 games in a single season — that might be an insurmountable hurdle to navigate again this year, as few experts see the Rockies posting a winning record.
Full voting: Nolan Arenado, Colorado (4 votes); Bryce Harper, Washington (4); Kris Bryant, Chicago (2); Anthony Rizzo, Chicago (1); Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco (1); Corey Seager, Los Angeles (1), Trea Turner, Washington (1)
National League Cy Young winner?
There’s a theme here — guys with signature hair led the voting; Harper in the MVP and New York’s Noah Syndergaard in the Cy Young category. The 24-year-old fireballer finished eighth in the voting last year, when went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA for the Mets, who made a second straight playoff appearance.
Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw got five votes — and let’s face it, he’s a pretty safe bet. The lefty has finished in the top five of the NL voting in each of the last six years. He finished fifth in 2016 despite only winning 12 games and making a career-low 21 starts.
Full voting: Noah Syndergaard, New York (7 votes); Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles (5); Jake Arrieta, Chicago (2); Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco (1)
American League MVP?
Mike Trout is really good at baseball. Good enough, in fact, to convince seven of our voters that he’ll win his third trophy in the last four years. Not bad for a guy whose team has sniffed the postseason only once in six years. Boston’s Mookie Betts, whom Trout beat out last season, also got a lot of run among our panel.
Full voting: Mike Trout, Los Angeles (7 votes); Mookie Betts, Boston (5); Jose Altuve, Houston (1); Francisco Lindor, Cleveland (1); Manny Machado, Baltimore (1)
American League Cy Young winner?
The Boston Red Sox acquired lefty ace (and noted throwback uniform hater) Chris Sale in the offseason, and most voters in our panel see him winning the Cy Young. Sale is coming off a 17-win season and six straight top-six Cy finishes with the White Sox. This year, the five-time All-Star will have a chance to pitch in the postseason for the first time in his career with the Red Sox, who are a popular pick to win it all.
Full voting: Chris Sale, Boston (7 votes); Corey Kluber, Cleveland (4); Justin Verlander, Detroit (2); Felix Hernandez, Seattle (1); Aaron Sanchez, Toronto (1)
