Dodgers series to serve as a litmus test for Diamondbacks entering summer

Have the Arizona Diamondbacks been the best mediocre team in baseball or the worst good team entering the summer months?

It sounds simplistic, but the Diamondbacks’ wins and losses have swung wildly this season based on the quality of their opponent.

The Diamondbacks enter Monday with Major League Baseball’s best record against sub-.500 clubs at 23-8, punctuated by a recent 11-2 record against the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants.

They dominated that stretch of games, outscoring the bottom-dwellers by 29 runs in total.

Against teams at or above .500, the D-backs are 8-19, the fourth-worst mark in the league only ahead of the Rockies, Minnesota Twins and strangely the New York Yankees (who are only 3-8).

“I want to win as many games as possible, winning games against any team, against any style of pitcher. We’ve got to find a way to get there,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “We’ve got to start pressing some of those games and win against some of the quality starters or quality baseball teams. I’m aware of it, and it does not make me happy.”

The Diamondbacks did not perform well in their first series since the schedule toughened back up, getting swept by the now-above-.500 Seattle Mariners over the weekend.

Seattle won two of the three games via walk-off hits in extra innings, but the D-backs never led at any point. Ketel Marte went hitless after his NL Player of the Week surge, hitting with runners in scoring position was a struggle against high-level pitching and home runs bit Zac Gallen and Ryne Nelson.

The D-backs are still in NL Wild Card position entering June, but this week will serve as an updated gauge for their ability to hang with the best teams: The Los Angeles Dodgers are in town for four games at Chase Field, coming off five straight series wins.

“Give them credit, they played well, but we move on,” Nolan Arenado said. “We’ve done a great job of moving on to game-to-game and series-to-series, so this is a new series, a new challenge.”

L.A. series throughout the Diamondbacks’ recent past have been telling.

In 2023, the D-backs split a four-gamer at Dodger Stadium to start the season, grinding out a couple tight wins. The Diamondbacks then had to play the Dodgers for another four-game series at Chase Field less than a week later, and Arizona stunned Los Angeles with three victories that previewed a fantastic first half for the eventual NL champions.

Last year, the Dodgers came to Chase Field in May for four games, including a fittingly wild ballgame that was just so 2025 Diamondbacks. Arizona trailed by five runs and stormed back to take the lead. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. threw his hands in the air after a game-tying grand slam, but Shohei Ohtani reciprocated the motion after his go-ahead home run in the ninth inning.

A heroic comeback, a late bullpen implosion and an emotional roller coaster resulting in a loss was pretty apt for the team last year.

This time, the Diamondbacks enter the series having already played the Dodgers to start the season. They were swept after a pair of tight losses, and players felt they had performed better than the final result suggested. They bounced back and went 13-5 over the next 18, a promising sign of their resilience.

This series will also tell a story.

Teams can feast on the worst teams and make the postseason in the current expanded format.

Last year, the Chicago Cubs went 38-46 against teams at or above .500, but they were so good against struggling clubs that they won 92 games and reached the NLDS. The 2024 Kansas City Royals went 45-54 against teams at or above .500 and made the ALDS with 86 regular season wins.

The Diamondbacks will also get reinforcements coming off the injured list soon. Pavin Smith, Jordan Lawlar, Gurriel and A.J. Puk are first up, with Corbin Burnes looking at July. Can these players make a notable difference quickly will be another curiosity for the team with two months of baseball before the trade deadline.

The Diamondbacks’ schedule lightens up after this week.

They will face the Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins after the Dodgers. The Nationals’ offense has kept them frisky, but those four teams have a combined win percentage of .466. The end of June/first half of July schedule looks more daunting.

Even if the D-backs continue to stack wins against the teams they are supposed to, their ability to compete with better teams will continue to be questioned unless they can make a statement against the Dodgers first.

That doesn’t mean it is series win or bust, but signs of progress against the league’s best would provide a confidence boost for the team and fans alike after the D-backs were clearly outplayed in Seattle, Chicago and Milwaukee.

Diamondbacks postseason odds entering June

• Baseball Reference – 45.4%
• FanGraphs – 41.5%
• Baseball Prospectus – 36.2%

Diamondbacks-Dodgers probable starters

• Monday – LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (5-1, 2.31) vs. RHP Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 4.70)
• Tuesday – RHP Michael Soroka (7-1, 3.25) vs. LHP Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.95)
• Wednesday – RHP Zac Gallen (3-4, 5.16) vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 0.82)
• Thursday – RHP Ryne Nelson (2-4, 4.82) vs. LHP Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.87)

Related

Diamondbacks' Pavin Smith coming off IL, Tim Tawa optionedDiamondbacks swept by Mariners as offense disappearsIldemaro Vargas walks off Athletics in extra innings, Diamondbacks move into tie for wild card spotDiamondbacks top pick Ryder Helfrick gets major league preview: ‘It was unreal’Diamondbacks RHP Drey Jameson to injured list with hip issueCorbin Carroll expected back in Diamondbacks lineup Tuesday vs. Athletics