ESPN puts D-backs at No. 23 in early 2020 starting lineup rankings
Jan 30, 2020, 12:00 PM | Updated: 12:26 pm
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JULY 17: Eduardo Escobar #5 of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrates with Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks after hitting a two-run home run against the Texas Rangers in the top of the first inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on July 17, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
With pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in the coming weeks, the beginning of baseball season is starting to take shape.
And following an offseason that saw Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen make some splashy moves, D-backs fans will be itching to see if this team can unseat the Los Angeles Dodgers as NL West champions.
But in order to do just that, the Diamondbacks will have to outslug their division rivals, which is a lot easier said than done.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle ranked Arizona No. 23 in his early 2020 MLB starting lineup rankings on Thursday with a final score of 79.0.
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To determine the list, Doolittle used the projected rate of runs created per 600 plate appearances and ranked each team in contact (strikeout percentage); patience (walk percentage); power (slugging percentage minus batting average); speed (a statistical speed score via Statcast) and balance (how the lineup matches up against LHP vs. RHP).
Doolittle also deemed batters he projects to reach 90 runs created per 600 plate appearances as “core hitters” while those projected under 75 runs created per 600 plate appearances are classified as “lineup holes.”
All of the aforementioned metrics were converted to a park-neutral context for the projected starting lineups.
- Ketel Marte (S)
- Starling Marte (R)
- David Peralta (L)
- Eduardo Escobar (S)
- Kole Calhoun (L)
- Christian Walker (R)
- Carson Kelly (R)
- Nick Ahmed (R)
- Pitcher (–)
Doolittle gave the D-backs the following rankings: contact (8th), patience (22nd), power (23rd), speed (14th) and balance (13th). He also deemed that the Diamondbacks only have one core hitter while also having two lineup holes.
When Arizona landed Starling Marte this week — giving the D-backs a Marte par-tay atop their lineup — it spurred a few “can Arizona challenge the Dodgers?” angles. And, sure, they can. It’s just unlikely. There is a heap o’ regression pushing this forecast down for Arizona — for the Ketel half of the Marte par-tay, for Walker, for Kelly and Ahmed. However, some future iteration of my forecasting system will learn to integrate a regression override when an organization proves to be unusually adept at helping players move to, and stay on, a higher plane of performance. Arizona might be one such organization, and if No. 23 is the over/under for this lineup, I’m betting they do a heck of a lot better than that. But I wouldn’t put money on them overtaking the Dodgers.
The Dodgers came in as the National League’s best club with a score of 95.5 and only trailed the Houston Astros’ 96.5 for the top spot on the list.
Doolittle ranked Los Angeles No. 1 in MLB in both power and patience due to their five core hitters and zero lineup holes. However, because of the six lefties (not including pitchers) projected in the 2020 starting lineup, the Dodgers came in dead last for balance.
Perhaps that’s why Hazen had his heart set on signing starting left-handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner to spearhead a rotation that already included another lefty in Robbie Ray.
In 36 career appearances against the Dodgers (35 starts), Bumgarner is 15-14 with a 2.72 ERA, 218 strikeouts and a 1.087 WHIP in 225.1 innings pitched.
