What are the Cardinals’ odds of winning the NFC West over Rams?

Dec 29, 2021, 8:39 AM

ArizonaSports.com lead editor

For sure, it was a schedule quirk when the Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot thanks to a division foe.

What did it — a win by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday against the mediocre Minnesota Vikings — also lost the Cardinals the lead in the NFC West, a post they’d held for months.

Their chances of regaining that title by the end of the regular season aren’t favorable.

Arizona (10-5) plays at the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday before finishing at State Farm Stadium against the Seattle Seahawks, who will be up for being the spoiler.

The Rams (11-4), on the other hand, have a one-game lead with a visit to the Baltimore Ravens and a home game against the San Francisco 49ers to close the year.

Baltimore (8-7) is reeling with four losses in a row, having sent out third-string quarterback Josh Johnson to play last week with starter Lamar Jackson out with an ankle injury and backup Tyler Huntley on the COVID-19 list.

For the Cardinals to steal the division, it needs to go like this — in the simple terms: Los Angeles needs to lose two games and Arizona needs to win one, or the Cardinals must win out with the Rams splitting the final two (There are a few tie game scenarios we will not touch for now — nobody wants ties).

Here are the current projections and odds from various sources across the web about Arizona’s chances at taking the NFC West:

NFC West winner percentage projections

ESPN

Rams: 75%

Cardinals: 25%

FiveThirtyEight

Rams: 77%

Cardinals: 23%

FiveThirtyEight allows you to click through win-loss scenarios by team to view changing odds, and the takeaway is that both teams winning in Week 17 doesn’t change the odds much (it drops to 22% for Arizona). However, if the Rams lose to the Ravens and the Cardinals beat the Cowboys, then suddenly the odds shift to favor Arizona at 80% heading into Week 18.