The analytic models really like the No. 5 seed Houston Cougars, even against the No. 1 seed in their NCAA Tournament region.

KenPom.com has them as the 10th-best team on offense and defense for the season, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has the Cougars with a 60.5% chance of beating the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats in their Sweet 16 matchup in San Antonio on Thursday night.

It would not be a shock to see the Cougars upset the 33-3 Wildcats, ending their NCAA Tournament run under first-year coach Tommy Lloyd.

Not helping matters is their recent play: Houston comes off a 15-point win against Illinois, while Arizona needed overtime to hold off a pesky TCU Horned Frogs team in the round of 32 on Sunday.

The odds match up with what could be a toss-up.

Arizona remains a 1.5-point favorite the morning of gameday, according to the FanDuel sportsbook.

The over/under sits at 146.5, while the moneyline sits at -134 for Arizona and +112 for Houston.

The South Region matchup hast the second-closest odds in the Sweet 16. Only No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders have slimmer odds, with the latter team being the favorite.

Upstarts Saint Peter’s, a No. 15 seed, faces the longest odds as 12.5-point underdogs against the No. 3 seed Purdue Boilermakers.

The only other double-digit matchup is No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga Bulldogs, who are 10-point favorites over the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks.

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