The Cardinals are in full must-win mode now

Before  Super Bowl XXVIII, Buffalo Bills coach Marv Levy was asked if the game was a must-win considering he’d lost other Super Bowls and the team was getting older. Therefore, it was thought, they may not get another opportunity.

His response: “This is not a must-win; World War II was a must-win.”

If you allow football to be placed in its proper context within the confines of world history, the Arizona Cardinals are either one-game into a nine-game winning streak that will bring a championship or one loss away from their season ending.

Thus, the Cardinals are in full must-win.

It’s easy to look back on the season and state where you might have declared them dead. Some people look at “must-win” as more subjective. If you said the Minnesota or Atlanta game was a must-win because it’s your prediction they wouldn’t recover, you’re looking spot on with that opinion. The New York Times, however, takes out a lot of conjecture.

Looking at the New York Times playoff percentage simulator, if Arizona ends the year on a five-game winning streak, there’s an 89-percent chance the Cards are in the playoffs. Granted, the simulator is just that. It simulates finishing over 5,000 seasons and gives you the probable chance for Arizona. Run the simulator for yourself and it might come out different by a few percentage points.

It does prove, though, that none of the other losses were truly “must-wins” because a 4-0 run would, probably, lead to a game in Detroit in the first round of the playoffs. The big takeaway is as much as the Cardinals’ 2016 season has deserved the death penalty, the rest of the NFC has refused to tie the noose. An 89-percent chance to make the playoffs is strong enough to say they’re in if they win. Of course, the question becomes, are they strong enough to win?

The answer is no.

As I ran through the simulations, 4-0 basically puts Arizona into the second week of January, but going 3-1 isn’t enough, especially if “the one” is against Seattle. Losing in Seattle drops the Cards’ chances to 10 percent. If the Cards are going to lose, January 1st in L.A. is the one to pick because a 20 percent chance is the highest probability if any of the remaining four games are not victories.

The rest of the schedule isn’t daunting. The Dolphins aren’t a great team, but every team is good when they come off of an embarrassing loss like Miami suffered in Baltimore. The Saints and Los Angeles aren’t scary, but neither was New England without Brady and Gronk…or Buffalo…or the 4-8 Rams and Panthers…or the .500 Vikings.

One of the greatest hot streaks ever was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers. After starting 7-2, a three game losing streak seemed to eliminate Pittsburgh from playoff contention. They won four in a row to pass the Chiefs for the final playoff spot, then took the hardest road in NFL history to a Super Bowl beating the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds (not in that order) to reach the Super Bowl. The wide receivers coach on that team was Bruce Arians.

The Cardinals are in a similar situation as those Steelers, so it’s fair to say, “It’s happened!” At the end of the season, that statement will probably change to a question that will define the 2016 Arizona Cardinals: “What happened?”

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