NFL Network’s Frelund projects Cardinals to finish on playoff bubble
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund simulated 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game for the 2022 season to predict win totals for each NFC team.
She projected the Arizona Cardinals would win 8.7 games, just above .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture.
Arizona projected to finish third in the NFC West behind the Los Angeles Rams (11) and the San Francisco 49ers (9.6).
In the Wild Card race, Arizona finished behind the Dallas Cowboys (9.6), San Francisco and the Minnesota Vikings (9.1), and just ahead of the New Orleans Saints (8.3).
The Cardinals will face the Vikings and Saints this season in what could be playoff-deciding contests if the season plays out comparably to Frelund’s projections.
Since the projections are based on game simulations, Frelund was also able to see trends in performances.
Kyler Murray passes for more than 4,200 yards in 53 percent of simulations and at least 27 TDs in 52.7 percent of simulations. He also rushes for more than 500 yards in 53.8 percent of simulations, topping 600 51.3 percent of the time.
Frelund’s ceiling for the Cardinals was 9.9 wins with a floor of 6.3. The wide discrepancy suggested the Cardinals will play a lot of tight ballgames.
The Cardinals’ season begins Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs at State Farm Stadium.