ARIZONA CARDINALS

Football Outsiders down on Arizona Cardinals turning season around

Sep 26, 2022, 6:05 PM | Updated: 7:12 pm

Football Outsiders isn’t optimistic that the Arizona Cardinals will turn their season around after a 1-2 start.

While their one win came from an impressive road comeback, their two home losses have been less competitive than the final scores suggest.

In Football Outsiders‘ simulation through season’s end, the Cardinals’ mean win total was 6.4. That mark tied for the fewest wins in football. While they’re within 0.3 mean wins from passing four other teams, that hardly projects them anywhere near postseason contention, let alone making the Super Bowl at State Farm Stadium.

Moreover, Football Outsiders gives the Cardinals the third-best odds to obtain the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft (9.1%). While the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans both have higher odds for No. 1, only the Texans are more likely to have a top-five pick.

The Cardinals are the NFL’s fourth-oldest roster, so getting younger through top-of-the-round talent wouldn’t be the worst thing for them.

However, they’d improved on their win total each of the previous four years — and made the postseason last year for the first time since 2015. During a window that should continue showing improvement, finishing with the top pick is a major step backward. Especially after signing general manager Steve Keim, head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray to extensions this past offseason.

Time will tell if the Cardinals can turn their season around.

However, Football Outsiders ran a simulation 50,000 times to project what the final standings will look like.

Events through the first three weeks matter, as well as expected ones down the road. Those include Deshaun Watson’s return to the Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones’ injury as well as DeAndre Hopkins’ return to the Cardinals.

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the mean projected DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Presented By
Western Governors University

Arizona Cardinals

Monti Ossenfort looks on...

Vincent DeAngelis

PFF’s Spielberger grades Cardinals’ free agent class among worst in NFL

PFF's Brad Spielberger gave the Cardinals' free agent class a "C" grade in his latest rankings. It was the worst grade among all 32 teams.

4 hours ago

Jonah Williams pressure Sam Darnold...

Tyler Drake

Report: Free agent DL Jonah Williams visiting Arizona Cardinals this week

Defensive lineman Jonah Williams is visiting the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings this week, according to Aaron Wilson.

13 hours ago

Casita seating at the Arizona Cardinals' State Farm Stadium...

Arizona Sports

Arizona Cardinals’ new suite options at State Farm Stadium include casitas

The Arizona Cardinals on Monday announced new luxury seating options for 2024, including custom casita suites at State Farm Stadium.

17 hours ago

Justin Fields...

Associated Press

Quarterback carousel: Bears trade Justin Fields to Steelers to clear way for top pick

The Chicago Bears traded quarterback Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night for draft compensation.

2 days ago

Kyler Murray...

Arizona Sports

Report: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s 2025 guarantees kick in

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had nearly $30 million guaranteed for the 2025 season kick in by remaining on Arizona's roster by Saturday.

2 days ago

Paris Johnson Jr. celebrates with Kyler Murray...

Tyler Drake

Which side of the line will Cardinals’ Paris Johnson Jr. command in 2024?

Even before the Cardinals released D.J. Humphries, there was already talk of Paris Johnson Jr. making the switch from right to left.

3 days ago

Football Outsiders down on Arizona Cardinals turning season around