Reassessing Arizona State’s 2016 prospects

TEMPE, Ariz. — Predicting the Pac-12 South football race is not a business on which to build your reputation.

In the five seasons since the conference added Utah and Colorado and then split into two divisions, five of the South Division’s six teams have grabbed at least a share of the division title, with only Colorado still gunning for the top perch.

Given the Buffaloes’ improved play through three weeks of the 2016 season, this may be the most difficult race yet to predict. When the season began, it looked like UCLA and USC were a cut above, with Utah warranting a mention in the conversation, but as the Pac-12 prepares for its first heavy slate of games this weekend (Stanford beat USC last week), it looks like the South has no great teams, no bad teams and half a dozen middling to good teams.

“This is probably the murkiest and cloudiest the division has looked since the conference split into north and south,” Pac-12 Network college football analyst Evan Moore said.

ASU fans may be not feel like flexing their muscles after a narrow escape at Texas San Antonio on Friday, but the rest of the division is equally perplexing.

USC already has two (albeit elite) losses (Alabama and Stanford). UCLA lost to Texas A&M and looked underwhelming in a win over BYU. Utah eked past BYU and struggled with San Jose State. Arizona lost to BYU and eked past Grambling State, and perennial cellar-dweller Colorado had a third-quarter lead at No. 4 Michigan last week before the Wolverines pulled away.

Evans wonders about USC’s discipline and its psyche after two big losses. He wonders if UCLA’s personnel have caught up to its new pro-style offense, or if there will be more fits and starts. He questions Arizona’s ability to stop anyone, he thinks Colorado will post two surprising wins in the division this year, and he cites Utah as the only south team that has established an identity.

That might be good news for Arizona State’s young offense and slowly healing defense.

The Sun Devils were picked to finish fifth in the preseason media poll, but after three weeks, they are one of two unbeaten teams (Utah) in the division. Couple that with a favorable early portion of their Pac-12 schedule, and projections for the Sun Devils may be changing.

“They’ve got a chance in the south, and it’s really a function of them getting healthy on defense,” said Moore, noting the absence of several key Sun Devils in the nonconference play like linebackers Salamo Fiso (suspension), Christian Sam, defensive lineman George Lea and linebacker/safety Laiu Moeakiola. “If they can figure out how to get stops and shore it up on the back end, they’re absolutely a dangerous team because of all the playmakers they have on offense.”

It may sound crazy to call Saturday’s Pac-12 opener against Cal at Sun Devil Stadium a swing game for ASU’s season (we felt the same way about the Texas Tech game), but consider this: If ASU beats the Bears and can split against the two L.A. schools (ASU is 4-4 combined against USC and UCLA in Todd Graham’s Tempe tenure), it will be 5-1 at the midpoint of the season, with games at Colorado and home against Washington State next on the schedule.

That’s a lot of projecting, though, and if Graham is feeling better about his prospects than he was at the start of the season, he isn’t letting on.

“We just have to keep grinding and getting better,” he said, wanting no part of projecting the South. “I have not paid attention to the South Division.”

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